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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
how do you think AUD/USD for nex month?
Yep, I see that W. If that last leg exceeds the 90.60 area, then it will most likely go up. Ummhhhh. I'll keep an I on this
Thanks
I appreciate your post. This forum has been an inspiration Firstly because of Ashraf and secondly the people on this forum are tremendously helpful and have some good advice.
I have never traded this pair and I guess if the techical analysis fits, then why shouldn't you. I will hold off and just see what happens, but I can see what you are refering to. It also can be seen that it is at the top of the range. There is a higher probablity that the pair will come down.
If I were to trade.. I would look for 90.60 short
Large 'W' formed since 11th Jan (rough date) so still bullish if close above 91.00 on daily. RSI + stoch + upper bollinger band all looking +ve atm.
Yes IMTs etc hinting still some yen weakness but Japan fiscal new year early April may start that downward slope.
Let's see
Anything I write is my rather naive analysis but really hoping to hear all yours and rest of groups expert advice.
CADJPY has been so far tested the 90+ top several times since 2008. The 90 level so far appears to be a key resistance level,
1) On the monthly chart, the 100 simple moving average has so far been a resistance level so far, and possibly the 50 MA in 9150 area.
2) fib 38.2% between 2007 high and 2008 low also in sub 90 levels, just crossed it.
Just read Ashraf's IMT today on GOVERNMENTS TO THE RESCUE and RENEWED SURGE OF RISK APPETITE and his earlier calls USD JPY 9180 ....
Perhaps, this dampen any notion of tightening or anything Bernanke's Q&A today may signal, or any other hope of lending rates related news out of China. Should USDCAD over the next Qtr goes up towards 1.05/107 range at the back of stronger USDX, I am assuming this would be also much lower CADJPY??
Having said that, looking at the daily chart, CADJPY is above all the major daily moving averages, and momentum looks strong.
I would love to see how others are trading this pair.
You were bang on.. Just out of curiosity, I wasunable to determine any entry signs, Can you tell what I missed out on, aprt from the short entry (from a tech' view) -thankyou
I've been itching too :-) technicals r showing move to 91.30s before dipping, so I'm still waiting.
Whats your thinking behind shorting Cad/Jpy. (90.63 is the high on a daily chart). Ashraf did mention that crosses are stronger today. Not sure how long thats going to last
if it continued, i d rather look to short eur usd than aussie..but not until 1,3635