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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:

GBP

Discuss GBP
 
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macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 12:59
@ speculator: I am concerned with GBP vs. EUR and think this can keep GBP somewhat afloat as the short GBP/EUR cover. UK growth surprising to the upside, which is very possible (higher GDP revisions), the chart of GBP/EUR looks like a symmetrical triangle with a possibility of testing upper resistance (currently testing resistance level now), the change in market forecast dividend payouts in the FTSE and Eurostoxx for 2012 (FTSE payouts have risen by 10% relative to Eurostoxx). Rates don't favor the GBP vs. EUR so from a carry perspective this works against GBP.
Ginger
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 12:00
mate that was a typo - should have read 1.53!
Jetsetter
London, UK
Posts: 7
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 11:55
Ashraf
Today you predicted that GBP would go above 1.63 after Fed's announcement; yesterday, you were saying 1.5370 would likely be broken; on March 28, though, you were saying that "days of +1.5300 are over for GBP for the next 3-4 weeks." Would you care to comment/clarify? Thanks!
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 11:44
EH ASHRAF

TRY THE DEIRDRE HELPLINE IN CASE;
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 11:28
WELL ASHRAF

NOT BAD THE INTERVIEW WITH DEIRDRE I WOULD SAY PREFECT;
ESPECIALLY THE CLOS ;
speculator
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 11:09
with uk elections nearing this means uncertainty. unless data till then is relatively inspiring not just skimming past estimates against other currency, sterlings extremely unlikely to run higher.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 10:44
1.56 - 1.57 is unlikely, just pointing out what I see as the next trendline resistance now that the 2-month down trendline was broken. However, I still like Ashraf's 1.53 resistance level better as that must first be broken. The recent runs in GBP and EUR are great examples of why entries and stops are so critical. I do believe we will see 1.45 and 1.32 in GBP/USD and EUR/USD respectively but the timing of when to enter can (and has) shake you out of an othewise great trade.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 0:43
@Ashraf: Great. Will look out for it.


@AMG: well, it went significantly above 1.52, not that this surprised me too much.
Nearly 1.53 as I write, and can see it going a bit higher, especially with this "holiday madness" that Callum wrote about. Don't know about Macrosam's 1.56-57 though. I think we'll see 1.50 before we see 1.56, but that's just idle guesswork, more or less.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 18:13
mont, perhaps will do a July course.

Ashraf
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 16:02
No real conviction to short GBP/USD until the 1.56 - 1.57 area, thinking that second down trendline started from Nov 2009's high will be what holds now that this more recent downtrendline that originated in January 2010 has been broken.
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