GBP

There is an interesting video now on Cantos with Chris Watling from Longview, talking about the impact of the election on the markets. Essentially he believes the election is neutral for the stock market, because most earnings are from overseas.

The impacts will be on gilts and sterling.

A hung parliament or narrow Labour victory would be sterling-negative and gilt-negative.
A Conservative victory would be sterling and gilt positive
[That is all according to Chris Watling, not me! :-) ].

[The rest is my opinion :-) ]:-

It is really hard to judge the result of the election at this stage. Narrow Tory lead in the polls (which are themselves divergent....expect them to converge in the next 4 weeks, one way or another). I think a hung parliament, a narrow Labour win, or a narrow Conservative win are all approximately equally likely! Voters are incredibly fed up with MPs at the moment (expenses scandal), and not terribly pleased with the government (lobbying scandal among other things), but yet not terribly convinced by the Conservatives. The LibDems may gain from all this, especially as their shadow Chancellor, Vince Cable, correctly judged the extent of the financial meltdown way back when (not that he necessary is any better at coming up with solutions). Of course the LibDems cannot win, but they could have a lot of influence in the event of a hung parliament, although they have ruled out taking part in a former coalition. Against them is that their leader, Nick Clegg, is relatively unknown, and not a very impressive speaker.




Personally I have continued doing what I've been doing for the last couple of months or so: selling every rally of GBP/USD and EUR/USD, and taking relatively modest profits (~50 pips, sometimes more, but it all adds up). This is not trading advice. Your mileage may vary; markets can go down, sideways, as well as up :-)

THANKS SHANE

i am persuaded the overall trend is down but the upswing is not terminated. still room to go.

said
The consolidation you are talking about is similiar to what happened bw 1.63 and 1.59 before we had a big downside in gbp. certainly in fx you cant rule out anything but i still favour the downside. i will be more sure of an uptrend if the consolidation was at 1.48 to 1.50 but consolidation at the top of the present range means more downside chances than upside.
one more thing even if you are right i will wait till i get a weekly close above 1.53 for going long and in the process if you earn a 100 pips more i will give that to you but i dont agree taking a chance till we have a technical break out. its good to think ahead of the fx market but in way we have seen a bottom in gbp and with elections in may you sure will see a quick downside soon.

ASHRAF
dont u see a support at 1.5155 before the uptrend reume? i am persuaded