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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 9, 2010 0:40
Comments: 200
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

S&P500 / VIX Ratio & USD LIBOR

On the cycles of the S&P500 / VIX ratio and the stabilizing cost of USD 3-month LIBOR relative to its yen counterpart.
 
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nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 13:11
Ginger

I saw the interview - u r right the FM guys just did not let him complete a sentence. I agree with him - that this could be a great shorting opportunity- but with low leverage - so a bit more tolerance for further gains in equities.
Catnip - ur system theoretical approach sounds interesting - as Montomorency suggested - give us a few leads if that is fine with you and those interested can research it further - I'd be keen to understand it.
Regarding flipping a coin - I think I should do that sometimes specially in the market environment of the last 3 months - would have done better than my methods.
Ginger
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 12:49
I couldn't find the Robert Prechter interview on CNBC yesterday but viewed it today. The aggressive fast money traders wouldn't let the guy finish any sentence what a bunch of jerks. He's basically advising that this is one of the best times to short the market and I think he's right. The pieces of the jigsaw are coming closer together. The catalyst for the fall in markets are all out there but the single biggest one is China.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 12:05
I don't know whether one could trust Zerohedge. But if ZH is correct then I think one should NOT expect
continuation of stocks and commodities rally.
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 11:51
@catnip - I find this a hard to imagine the notion of failure in "Chinese bill auctions". Failure is not an option.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 11:37
If it is correct Chinese bill auctions had failed then PBOC fund rate is too low... a PBOC fund rate hike
is imo negative for commodities. And negative for stocks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 11:25
Catnip, james chanos (first man who alerted on Enron finances) still talking about burst of chinese bubble in late 2010.


Ashraf
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 11:03
Is that true?? http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gray-swan-chinese-bill-auctions-fail

I have no idea whether ZH is a trustworthy source but if it is correct...remember the downward move
of EUR begun with a ( at best) lukewarm auction of German bunds in Oct 2009.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 10:27
@Catnip: Would you care to summarise what your system/method/approach is based on?

I don't mean to ask you to give away here all your secrets ( :-) ). I just mean mention some major headings that people can then go and research themselves if they care to. You have already mentioned some intriguing things.

I have to say that I am an extreme sceptic with regards to most forms of TA, and especially to mechanical trading, but on the other hand, I try to keep an open mind (if that is not a contradiction).

Maybe this would be better continued in the "Trading" thread though.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 10:08
EW has a particualr problem due to its mathematical feature ( "fractal") : it cannot have a "begin" in the finite. Since I follow a system theoretical approach - the market is a non linear system with memory- EWs can be viewed as the memory of the market and thus is the market's response to a signal that is NOT in EW. The signal occurs outside of the market. I have checked a number of algorithmic trading systems using EW and they are over the long run not more accurate than flipping a coin. But EW can serve well to determine an exit.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 8:11
ashraf

do u se a correction today in sp and dow jones

thanks
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