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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 19:42
Now already at 1.3535...
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 19:23
I'm rather bullish as well, Euro already starts to gain:http://fxtrade.oanda.com/
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 18:52
one has to mind that euro is us based built curency and an EU intracommunity currency and that the strengh of its currency was the factor of a US will to counter since 2000 the market real term value (proven by dow jones in gold value) drop by emphasing the export driven economy.
the extension of injection liquidity in europe will emphasize this trend

catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 18:28
What does not fit here?
The relative weakness of commodity currencies. I don't buy , in case of CAD, "disappointing labor market" and such.
And the sudden weakness of SEK. I relate this to loans EUR denominated to Eastern Europe economines
by swedish banks. Let's face it: the Greece debt crisis is a hype. Greece's economy contributes about 2% to the Eurozone total GDP. The debt of Eastern Europe in EUR , combined Lithuania to Ukraine to Romania is in the range of EUR trillions. This is the "bomb" . This is a geopolitical item as Russia's intend is , rather unshielded, to "get back" what the USSR lost, the European satelites.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 18:05
Eurozone details $40.5 billion aid plan for Greece

STOP killing euro
i see more strengh from euro in teh coming months
the trend is down till the 1.31 around and i know that a lot of people are skeptical on EW but the different market trend and pattern i ahve checked since 2005 dont lie.
Apart the talk of the mbs purchase program some unofficial talk between monetary policy menber might allow the ecb to extend its rmbs and cmbs purchase program.
titrisation will come later the SPV used for the process during the period 2005 2007 will be reactivated by the second-third quarter 2011.
dhussey
United States
Posts: 22
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 18:04
Agreed catnip- There are clear signs of the EURO reversing itself here, however, there are also signs that this may have just been a speculative head fake. Today starts a very big turning point for the EURO, especially the EUR/USD, as it is sitting on its channel resistance.

The market will not decide if the package is good enough to warrant an "all clear", however, there are still unanswered questions across other euro-zone nations (from Ireland to Spain...)

I am currently net short euro- with very defined stops above 1.35... I will be looking to reverse this sentiment on a clear break of the resistance channel, as this channel has offered the BEST opportunities to short in the past...

I would also like to point out KEY support that held in the DIXI into Fridays close- the DIXI is weighted heavily in the EURO, so i still believe it offers a good deal of indication. The support comes in at around 81... and my analysis shows either a move to 85 in dixi or to 79 in a correction, I also believe the EURO has a similar sentiment at this time (either its heading to test 1.30 or back up to 1.38)... not very convinced either way ... YET...
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 17:53
Could be however it is right now a guarantee of a bailout. It is not clear what would actually trigger a real bailout ( EUR 30 bln may not be enough). It appears that finance ministers from the 16 euro countries will give the loans at 3y interst of 5% only if Greece really needs it thus their speculation is that would be enough to ward off so called speculators and Greece won't ever need it.
That is these simpletons are convinced Greece's debt all comes from speculators, Greece has nothing to do with it.
Well it will not work but for a week or two, maybe until May , one could make some profit with EUR/USD long but has to use stops or trailing stops.
rrose
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 17:00
bloomberg news bailout package for greece 30B euro seems like euro wil brake 135 and up
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 14:52
The basic reason why I changed mind from short to long is EUR/SEK . I had been short a couple of times on this pari with good to excellent results. But as I know Swedish banks gave plenty of loans to Eastern Europe EUR denominated and saw SEK falling vs. EUR I got suspicious. The loans to Eastern Europa are a much bigger thread than Greece debts. Without IMF these loans were already non perfoming. Austrai an EUR member with a broadly diversified industry has 300% of GDP in loans to Eastern Eur. countries.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 14:42
Correction SHORT not long I am long EURUSD now expecting a kind of bailout that holds for the rest of PIIGS principally.
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