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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 11:16
My understanding is that a departure from the union would follow a bailout so that bond holders would not be harmed. The departure itself would be necessary post-bailout in order for Greece to right its fiscal situation presumably via a return to the drachma and subsequent devaluation. The departure wouldn't be married to the notion of a default and the reason for all this hysteria rather than just defaulting is to find a solution that will prevent contagion.
sydneyjames
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 348
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 10:34
short euro at 1.3546. GL to all
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 8:13
It was clear and obvious between the lines German govt wants Greece to leave Euro. But they cannot.
Greece could indeed then start the printing press and monetize itself out of default but the difference
between ECB fund rate and a possible Greek Drachma rate (0) is already too small. So European
Eurozone banks would be sitting on EUR 178 billion of worthless Greece debts.
The only way of solving the crisis is to outsource labor to Greece Portugal at first in order to raise the GDP and make debt payoff feasible. But they cannot because of political targets.
So the EU got trapped in their own trap and that is STUPIDITY and INCOMPETENCE.
One frequently cited example is Portugal's attempt to set up a LNG spot market for Europe. A good idea
Portugal would import LNG set up a spot market like Henry Hub and sell natural gas to all of western
Europe. Guess who turned that down? Germany. What happened? german chancellor turned up in Paris
in the company of Putin and his best mates, some Oligarchs, and Medvedev, then CEO of Gazprom.
And wow France said sorry Portugal France doesn't want a gas pipeline from Portugal/Spain to the north. End of story. Hitler went east with war tanks and his successors also complete idiots go east with what they think is politics and clever diplomacy.
Tenapenny
Coventry, UK
Posts: 14
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 7:41
Jmx
Singapore
Posts: 44
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 4:55
catnip,

yes what u said is true but the 1 question i do wish to ask.....

If Greece is to default euro will crash but again if Greece were to ask to leave the euro zone...What will happen???

As the news in Germany a grp of people going to stop the EU from dispersing the aids and if they able to which means IMF will be the only sole group to provides the aids....

MG58
Florida, United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 21:19
Ashraf, Where do you see the EUR$ in the near term?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 20:53
About that Greece roadshow they want to do in the US. The idea is that it will coincide with the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Ashraf
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 18:57
Greece Closer to Aid Request; IMF, EU Due in Athens

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou moved a step closer to triggering a $61 billion rescue package, asking the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund for a meeting in Athens next week.

The governments request came after the yield on 10-year government bonds surged to 7.319 percent earlier today, higher than the level before the European Union said April 11 it was prepared to join with the IMF to fund a rescue. The IMF, EU and the European Central Bank begin meeting their Greek counterparts on April 19.

Greece needs to raise 11.6 billion euros ($15.7 billion) by the end of May, and Papandreou has called current interest rates unsustainable. The bid to resolve the Greek crisis came as ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said the global economy may be entering a new sovereign debt crisis.

I guess those EU eggheads will eventually get it they cannot fool and cannot play hide and seek so one can go long on EUR but only as long as Greece doesn't ask hey can you spare a dime. Then an incredibly extended bureaucracy machine will start and the first 101 days it will be busy with itself.
Greece defaults and no one in Eu takes notice. Too busy...



macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 13:48
BLS attributing jobless claims # to administrative issues, market focusing more on Empire State # which came out hot but the glaring observation is the increase in prices paid and the decrease in prices received, implying pressure on profit margins going forward.

Tons of data coming out today mixed in with Fed speak.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 12:30
Stopped out overnight at 1.3635, thank goodness.

GGB yield curve almost as ugly as it was pre-last weekend

2y 6.74
3y 7.26
4y 7.47
5y 7.21
6y 7.29
7y 7.35
8y 7.32
9y 7.34
10y 7.16
15y 7.19
20y 0.00