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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 100
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 100
Forum Topic:
Trading, Analysis (Technical/Fundamental)
Discuss Trading, Analysis (Technical/Fundamental)
it is a number, this number is a property of what is called structure in systems theory, and differential
topology. Structure is the totality of relations which are invariant to a class of transformations thus signals are given then when invariance is violated i.e. the market "changes".
Here is the post about German Chancellor Merkel a self proclaimed IQ bomb always at the brink of exploding with an outburst of maximally intelligent insight into everything and beyond:
Angela Merkel is a Chemist. In her doctoral thesis - entitled "Untersuchung des Mechanismus von Zerfallsreaktionen mit einfachem Bindungsbruch und Berechnung ihrer Geschwindigkeitskonstanten auf der Grundlage quantenchemischer und statistischer Methoden" - she demonstrated herself to be a thoroughgoing expert when it comes to analysing the speed of disintegration of chemical compounds once the bonds which hold them together are weakened. Unfortunately she is now having to apply all this acquired expertise and know-how in a determined attempt to avoid the break up and falling apart, not of a highly complex chemical substance, but of an even more complex economic and political one, and the bonds which are the focus of all her attention right now are not chemical, but financial and social.
input is much appreciated, this trade started as "no doubt" and after a 3rd day of no movement, questions start to pop-up. I decided to scale down the trade to a minimum and keep it for a reason of great entry, and worst case scenario is break even.
Thanks
b.
Ashraf
but NOK and SEK are too equal in value. Norway has a high savings rate and very low unemployment
so even if oil gas nickel should drop NOK will stay strong.
I went short on NOK/SEK, on the begining of the week, but not much is happening. What would be Your take on this pair? Short, Long, neutral. I thought it is a good short opportunity for a medium term trade or as long as 200 SMA keeps the lid or more talk about Riksbank raising rates soon.
Thank You
b.
Well, catnip, and why shoul we use "difficult mathematics" for increasing our profit, if we can just use a free robot-helper?
If you're interesred, I've got one presented by Rite Lasker at robot4free.com. Maybe the income would not be very high, but as for me - I choose stability. and as far as I'm lazy :-), I prefer not to make mathematical calculations
yes it is a mathematical method developed by a Russian mathematician who is however US citizen for the past 15 years. I think he was the first to come up with an idea how to model all markets at once, as a system, in terms of systems theory. The mathematics is indeed very difficult but that is not a real problem as it has an algorithm that can be programmed. The big problem is that one needs all data which have to do with any form of money ( inclusive of debt) and with any form of decision how to move the money.
JPM and GS has access to these data but the average trader hasn't. So one has to cope with what is available and I chose the biggest markets in terms of money, the bonds i.e. sovereign and corporate.
I also need LIBOR and real inflation. So far it worked well I went short EUR and USD vs commodity currencies right in time with out any look at FX charts. I went short UST 10y price right in time and turned long and it was also right. I discovered trading sovereign bonds futures only recently even with a 100 leverage it is a safe bet.
Fascinating discussion taking place .... may I humbly suggest it be continued on the "Trading" thread here?
But to respond to a few points:
@Rrose: I'll take your word for it. So, assuming he predicted Friday's upmove, did you see it in time and did you make money from trading it?
Crowd Psychology/ Mass psychology: I have seen it claimed that TA "works" because it is supposed to (somehow) represent the mass psychology at work in the market. However, I don't know how this can be proved. Has anyone done any research to try to prove it? If it is unproven, I don't know how this can be stated confidently (although you see it stated all the time).
@Catnip: I assume you are talking about mathematical models. Interesting idea. Hard to do in practice, I would have thought. I suppose that the "wave" of the EW is like a kind of whiplash responding to the pulse of the "signal"? I agree with you that the markets are interconnected (that is after all the basis of this site, I would have thought) so it is a bit pointless trying to analyse one market in isolation. On the other hand it seems quite difficult to analyse them all together.