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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 18:51
@stationdealer yeah eurjpy is looking v v tempting
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 18:19
and oh! did i fail to mention EURYEN at all time buying opportunity.



SNBs Danithe: Theoretically There Are No Limits To SNBs Intervention

Hes right, since they are selling CHF. If they were buying it, they could spend all their reservesJust ask the BOE about 1992

Gets expensive though, when it falls from 1.55 to 1.40.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 18:09

A break above the 1.2445 level would trigger a head and shoulders bottom on the short-term charts in EUR/USD. The textbooks tell us we should get a 300 pip rally if triggered.

Dont forget IFO's expected positive tomorrow and today's gain in jobless claims may help boost the rally.

And i learned how to add charts here Yaaaaaaaaaay......
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 15:36
The euro-zone's spreading debt crisis teamed with worse-than-expected U.S. data Thursday to lead investors strongly out of currencies closely aligned with global growth.

Worry that the euro-zone crisis will stymie the global recovery sent the commodity-backed bloc of currencies sharply lower, with the Australian dollar plummeting more than 3.5% against the greenback and the Canadian dollar dropping more than 2.5%.

The euro fell sharply against the yen, dropping to a 9.5-year low under Y110, after talk of intervention to stem the common currency's rapid decline was increasingly seen as far-fetched. A nearly 3% plunge in U.S. stocks helped speed the euro's decline, with the common currency dipping under $1.23.

The dollar and yen took most advantage of souring investor sentiment, with investors strongly favoring the perceived safe harbors over currencies considered riskier, such as emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real, against which the dollar gained more than 3% by mid-morning trading.

Adding to negative market sentiment was a disappointing reading for U.S. weekly jobless claims and a drop for the first time since March 2009 in the index of leading U.S. economic indicators.

Thursday mid-morning, the euro was at $1.2334 from $1.2391 late Wednesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y89.58 from Y91.54, while the euro was at Y110.47 from Y113.41. The U.K. pound was at $1.4268 from $1.4415. The dollar was at CHF1.1522 from CHF1.1517.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 86.609 from 86.276.

"Initially, the market was fearing the ramifications on [the euro] and the currency became the cleanest way to play a negative euro-zone view," Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Bank in Toronto said of the escalating debt crisis. "However, as the situation has escalated and austerity measures increase, the fear has shifted to the ramification for global growth," she said.

Accordingly, currencies most tied to global growth, such as the Australian dollar, have come under "tremendous pressure," Sutton said.

Those growth-sensitive currencies also have been hammered by declining commodity prices and concerns that China will put an additional brake on its growing economy, which analysts worry could put the global recovery at risk.

The euro surrendered its day-earlier rally as market chatter that led some investors to believe coordinated central bank intervention could stem the euro's rapid decline was considered increasingly unlikely after comments from a euro-zone official that noted the common currency's speeding decline, but suggested intervention was off the table.

Meanwhile, investors waited to see whether other euro-zone countries would follow Germany's ban on certain types of speculative investments, with the uncertainty weighing on the euro, analysts said.

"The fact that [Germany's ban] has not been followed by other euro-zone members confirms uncoordinated policy responses to the current crisis and can only prove detrimental," said currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman. "In fact, throughout this crisis, the euro zone's uncoordinated and sometimes unorganized responses are as much to blame as the actual crisis situation," for the euro's nearly 15% fall since the beginning of the year.

Eurogroup Chairman and Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker voiced concern Thursday about the euro's recent rapid decline, but acknowledged some benefits from the weaker currency and said he sees little need for European policy makers to act right away to defend it.

"I'm really concerned about the rapid (pace) of the fall of the exchange rate," he told reporters at the Japanese Ministry of Finance following a one-on-one meeting with Finance Minister Naoto Kan. But Juncker added that "I don't think that this is a matter [requiring] immediate action."

The comments may add to the view among some market participants that euro-zone authorities will tolerate a weaker euro so long as its declines are not abrupt. A weaker currency helps the region's export-driven economies at a time when austerity measures to cut debt threaten to crimp fragile recoveries.


-By Bradley Davis, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2654; bradley.davis@dowjones.com

(Takashi Nakamichi and Andrew Monahan in Tokyo contributed to this article.)
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 15:30
Any one thinks there's a buying opportunity in Euryen at 109 levels


Boy if this what deflation can do to Japan what effect will it have US, Ahraf we await your comments deeply and with interest..........
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 15:01
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--The European Central Bank's present monetary policy stance remains "appropriate" after the ECB's decision to purchase debt issued by governments in the euro zone, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday.

"Our decisions on May 9 have confirmed it: We are not engaging in any form of quantitative easing," Trichet said at an event in honor of ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos, who will leave the central bank at the end of May.

The ECB last week, for the first time, started to intervene in the euro zone's sovereign-debt market to restore investor confidence in debt issued by euro-zone governments with weak public finances.

To silence critics, who argue the ECB's debt purchases could potentially fan inflation in the 16 nation euro bloc, Trichet said: "The liquidity provided through [bond purchases] is withdrawn in its entirety through tenders of term deposits"

The ECB and the euro zone's 16 national central banks settled EUR16.3 billion in purchases of bonds in the week ended May 14, the ECB said Tuesday.

Trichet stressed the ECB does not bow to any political pressure when it decides on interest rates and unconventional measures.

"The ECB is fiercely independent," he said, adding "we are inflexibly attached to price stability, our primary mandate."

The ECB's monetary policy strategy that includes the close analysis of money and credit data "implies that interest rate decisions will tend to lean against accumulating financial imbalances and asset price misalignments," Trichet said.


ECB website: www.ecb.int


-By Nina Koeppen and Nathalie Boschat, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 171 569 4340; nina.koeppen@dowjones.com
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 13:41
Yes, pre market for US is very dangerous, and the Euro could do just about anything. A good day to make lots of money IF you catch the right wave in the right direction!
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 13:36
sorry nor R1...i meant Pivot...
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 13:33
technically...
I think that going long eurusd 1,2300 today would be nice trade with low risk..max 100pips..
Possible inverted H&S pattern with 50MA as support together with r1 pivot...its worth trying in my opinion...
And this week its like custom, that eur rallies during US session..

BUT when i look at pre market for us session,,it somehow chokes me off...
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 11:11
Good arrticle in the wall street journal:

"So far during the euro's months-long descent, attention has been focused on hedge-fund selling of European assets but central banks and large managers have a much-larger influence on foreign-exchange markets. Even if they don't dump euro assets, a mere pause in their buying could weigh heavily on the currency..."

"South Korea's central bank, which has about $270 billion in foreign-currency reserves, among the biggest in the world, said this month that the euro zone's sovereign debt problems make the euro, used by 16 nations, less attractive as a reserve currency. Iran's central bank chief this week said that country may rethink its reserves, which the Central Intelligence Agency estimates around $81 billion. And Russia, with $400 billion in foreign-currency reserves, said it shifted its mix of reserves away from the euro last year."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704691304575254683361456058.html?mod=mktw