EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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If we look at, say, a daily chart since around January, long-term shorting EUR/USD looks like a no-brainer. However, at the time, with lots of false-breaks or retracements, it was nothing like so easy, despite Ashraf telling us back then it was probably going down to 1.32. 1.32 now seems like a distant memory :-) Have the fundamentals really changed since those days? If anything, things have got worse for the Euro. So I think we should not be surprised how far down it can go, but equally, we should never be surprised how far back up it can bounce (before finally resuming it downward spiral).
That has nothing to do with fundamentals of markets only with liquidity crunch.
When both liquidity and capital is low, technical analysis , elliot waves etc. regularly fail.
May I contribute. The euro never retraced beyond its previous highs since Dec 09. Not expecting it to go to 1.30.
Euro must fall below what value (other than its previous low around 1.18 something) to signal the next leg down is beginning ? There are false breaks to the north as mentioned by others, but there are also false breaks to the south as on Friday.
Also, better to short it against the USD or the yen ? If risk aversion to return, the yen is bound to rise and the euro may move more with the yen ?
EURUSD did have a false break back in April 11-13 before succumbing back into the downtrend.
Id have to see a proper close above 1.2130-40 in Asia. No, it is not called "moving the goal posts"
Ashraf
But it's unlikely, that euro will go north any further than it did already.
The main question is equity markets. They are about to crash big time. Will PPT manage to hold them at these levels? if yes, then there is the chance that euro will stabilize.