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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 28, 2009 15:40
Comments: 129
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves

Soaring yields give no choice to the Fed but to increase the quantity of bond purchases at the expense of the dollar. Speculative Forex positions agree.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 31, 2009 13:44
Taha, GM banckrupcy should be negative in the medium term, once the effects of the shut-out car dealers are felt. Short-term, the market may not care very much about it because the bankruptcy has been talked about for so long that it would not present a problem from a surprise element. Also, Im not sure how thay can call it bankruptcy when no more than 30% of creditors have accepted the details of the bankrupcty. A lot of people will lose money from this.

Ashraf
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
May 31, 2009 12:02
Hi Ashraf ,
I would like to know , GM bankruptcy , Is it good or bad for US stocks ? .
Taha
hedge
Singapore
Posts: 9
15 years ago
May 30, 2009 13:01
Hi Ashraf, nice quote http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a2e8a58-4cb0-11de-a6c5-00144feabdc0.html

is this the reverse head andshoulder in sterling you mentioned before?

hedge
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 29, 2009 20:01
Bill, FX markets do not have a monopoly over 11 or 10 week cycles. Instead, periodic cycles tend to vary and evolve. I wrote about the multiyear cycles on USDX in my book. But my Workbook has more examples on YEN and GBP cycles going back 20 years.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/wb01

And if you're not familiar with the 8-week cycle in equities, ive also mentioned that in the Workbook.


Ashraf
will poho
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 20
15 years ago
May 29, 2009 19:36
Hi Ashraf, The ever so charming Peter Wadkins, currency commentator at Thompson Reuters, speaks in terms of currency cycles. Average is 11 an week cycle. We are now approaching the end of the 11 week cycle in Euro strength. Does this have any impact on your forecasting as I never hear you speak of it? And yes I will be buying your book this weekend!
Thanks
Bill
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 29, 2009 16:13
fibb, if your doing this mainly for yield, then stick with AUD and NZD. NOK is also good. But do bear inb mind that we are likely to see a pullback in these currencies around Q3 when the inevitable decline in stcoks emerges. But their ability to rebound against USD is firm.

Ashraf
fibb22
California, United States
Posts: 3
15 years ago
May 29, 2009 15:53
Thanks Ashraf - so for currency holding on deposit, I meant to ask is the Oz the best one right now in your view (from a currency risk perspective ) ? Or is there another currency that you think might be better (eg NOK, NZD, EUR, CAD etc) ? And would you tend to hold more than one currency ?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 29, 2009 15:46
hedge, will update the Workbook by end of day today.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 29, 2009 15:43
fibb22, AUDUSD sounds good. your currency risk is unhedged but you get to ride the interest rate payoff. I think those companies require a minimum of about $10K or $20K. A nice amount which youy can use for leveraged FX 100-1 while using conservtv margin and get to reap the benefit of leverage.

Ashraf
hedge
Singapore
Posts: 9
15 years ago
May 29, 2009 15:21
Ashraf, are there new changes in the correlations from your workbook? will you update it soon? want to know any changes in corltions between gold and oil, oil and krone etcc

thank you for your hardwork

hegded in singapore
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