Eurozone Core, USD Index & Swiss Knife

Well looking bck here, Catnip was the most accurate, although 1.27 by end June was not quite achieved. 1.27 may well yet be achieved though, although it was running out of steam by the end of Friday. I have to say that at the time I was sceptical about 1.27, but I have to doff my cap to you.
Now to see if the 2nd half of your prediction will come to pass - i.e. a drop to 1.16 in July.
I hope so!

The Falling VIX Is Forecasting A Huge Chance For Gains

Could the latest activity in the Volatility Index (VIX) be signaling a month of decent returns? According to Market Tells, yes, via The Daily Options Report:http://dailyoptionsreport.com/blog/post/the-vix-dip-may-be-telling-you-something/

One of the more noteworthy developments last week was the persistent decline in volatility. For only the second time in the last five years, the OEX Volatility Index (VXO) posted nine consecutive lower lows as of Fridays close. This type of definitive drop in volatility has usually led to a flat-to-up market over the intermediate-term. Just looking for eight consecutive days of lower lows only turns up 10 occurrences since 1986

Eight Lower Lows for VXO

06/17/10 S&P500 ???
07/20/09 S&P500 +5.4% two weeks later, +3.0% one month later
06/21/05 S&P500 -1.5% two weeks later, +1.8% one month later
04/16/03 S&P500 +4.1% two weeks later, +7.6% one month later
11/23/01 S&P500 +0.7% two weeks later, -0.5% one month later
10/03/01 S&P500 +0.5% two weeks later, -1.2% one month later
11/19/90 S&P500 +2.2% two weeks later, +3.4% one month later
06/20/89 S&P500 -0.2% two weeks later, +4.5% one month later
12/23/87 S&P500 -3.9% two weeks later, -2.6% one month later
12/24/86 S&P500 +4.9% two weeks later, +9.5% one month later
10/23/86 S&P500 +2.8% two weeks later, +1.2% one month later


While Europe Is Back In Focus And It's Whacking Global Stocks


The most noteworthy point is the overall theme of limited downside potential over the next month. The S&P was up 3% or more one month later in 5 out of 10 occurrences and was never down more than 3%.

After yesterday's yuan revaluation rally, Asian markets have lost steam just like U.S. ones did at their close yesterday. Asia as a whole is down about 1%, with some relative strength in Shanghai.

MSCI Asia Apex 50 -- -1.1%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng -- -0.5%
Shanghai's CSI 300 -- +0.1%
Japan's Nikkei -- -1.2%
Australia's ASX 200 -- -1.2%

European markets are sliding. Bloomberg blames the action on a European Central Banker official
warning that European banks will have trouble funding themselves.

Major European markets are lower by 0.2 - 0.6%:
U.K.'s FTSE -- -0.6%
Germany's DAX -- -0.2%
France's CAC 40 -- -0.5%

Gold has eased back from it's new high, and is at $1,239. The euro has fallen back to $1.2316. Spanish ten-year bond yields are rising again, after having eased back from 2010 highs over the last few days.


Steel And Copper Consumption Are Breaking New Highs, But China Has Traders In A Stranglehold

Worldsteel data, shows how global steel production has returned to record levels.
Global copper consumption has staged a similar recovery, with the mix in consumption now more tilted towards China and less from the rest of the world.

Metal Miner:
The bank [Credit Suisse] states that commodity demand is back to where it was in volume terms before the crash of 2008. For example in 2007 the world consumed around 18mt copper split 5mt China 13mt ex China. Now its around 7mt and 11mt same global size very different split. Globally, steel production is back to pre-crisis levels but again capacity under utilization in the west has been compensated by significant new capacity running at higher levels in Asia.



Metal Miner highlights an interesting point -- Despite the fact that global steel production has returned to record highs, the change in mix really hurts producers in developed markets who are still suffering from massive capacity under-utilization. Steel can be shipped, but it's not quite a global market like its raw materials (iron ore and coal) are. Thus it remains very much split into regional markets. Credit Suisse makes the argument that investing in mining companies is thus the better way to play global commodity consumption, rather than dealing with steel companies.

Hi Ashraf I like your way.
Enjoy worldcup.

EURUSD will by end of June reach 1,27 at least then in July the lost focus on Spain will suddenly come back and EURUSD will drop to 1,16 . For tomorrow I expect a pullback to 1,225 this is a good entry for long.

yes ashraf i m waiting for 1.1660 confidently as i hold all my shorts.
enjoy worldcup.