EUR

More Euro Gains Possible

By PETER NURSE
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


LONDON -- With the Federal Reserve taking a more downbeat view on its outlook for the U.S. economy, and with the recent healthy demand at auctions from peripheral euro-zone members, the euro has pushed forward Thursday.

The Fed's board members late Wednesday lowered their growth forecast for this year to 3%-3.5%, down from 3.2%-3.7% previously. While members noted that further easing was not needed at this point of time, further stimulus may be needed should economic conditions worsen appreciably.

"With long-term forecasts being revised to show a bleaker picture than what was forecast a few months ago, the talk has shifted away from when on the horizon the Fed could tighten," BNP Paribas said.

On the other hand, this week's successful Greek bill auction and Spain's successful sales in recent weeks, culminating with Thursday's 15-year bond sale signals the end of the immediate liquidity concerns in the euro zone, said Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.

"As the ECB weans the market off of its long-term operations, drains excess liquidity and slows, if not stops, its bond purchases, the FOMC discussed the possibility that may have to consider additional actions," added BBH. "Although it seems clear to us that such action is not imminent, the direction of developments is notable. Short-term interest rate differentials continue to move in Europe's favor."

On top of this, the euro received a boost Thursday from positive second quarter earnings from U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), with profit up 76% from a year earlier, helping general risk appetite.

All of this prompted the euro to rise to a fresh two-month high above $1.2778, eventually reaching $1.2865.

And more gains are possible.

The recent positive tone has opened up the medium-term scope to at least $1.3125-$1.3510, said BNP Paribas, this being the 38.2%-50% retracement of the November-June decline from $1.5145 to $1.1875, via a corrective rebound lasting until August or early October.

Potentially a larger rise could occur toward $1.3895 (the 61.8% retracement) given momentum and pattern factors, the bank added.

hello to all
1.3000 is the horizontal resistance and today euro show the high of 1,2953 i think stroy completed to the upside but still iif its breach 1,3000 then we will look for 1,3250 the important thing will happen at friday if euro will close this week below 1,2720 then only we have chance to go down till 2130 in long run but if market close above 1,2720 then we will have to trade in buy only till again target will be 1,3000 and if breach then 1,3250 so guys keep in touch i will tell you daily or weekly trades with perfect levels and also tell u current trend
thnx
happy pipping

Goldman Sachs has just released its latest forecast on EUR/USD. Their economists are saying the pair will trade at 1.22 in three months. Their previous forecast was 1.15. In six months, they expect the euro to trade at 1.35 compared with 1.15 previously. A year from now, they expected the euro at 1.38 versus 1.25 previously.

what do you think about this?

together with his euro 116 in hell

Guys

Looks like everyone forgot that reverse H&S on a daily chart - I'll reenter around the 1.3000 area