Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Prices are testing support at a rising trend line established from the swing bottom in early February. A bounce sees initial resistance at the $1200 figure, followed by a horizontal barrier at $1212.45. Continued selling targets $1170 and $1151.80.

Silver fell in step with gold on Monday, but unlike the more prominent metal, silver did not break recent support levels. In the event that gold continues to fall, there is no question that silver will follow. While there may be minor fluctuations in the gold/silver ratio between 60 and 70, in all likelihood, the two metals will remain tied at the hip for the foreseeable future. Prices have formed a descending triangle chart formation above support at $17.42. This setup is typically a continuation pattern, hinting further gains ahead. That said, it also carries a negative connotation and may hint at an emerging bearish bias. A break below support exposes $16.81, while a rebound sees initial resistance at $18.73.

Pushing crude oil to the downside are the fears regarding the world economy and the possibility of a double dip. World equity markets remain well off their recent highs and economic data has indicated a slowing of growth around the globe. If major world economies fall into a second phase of contraction, crude oil prices will likely fall steeply. Prices continue to consolidate inside a rising channel. Initial support lines up near $75.00, while resistance is seen in the $78.13-79.38 congestion region.

Financial speculators have come under renewed fire from anti-poverty campaigners for their bets on food prices, blamed for raising the costs of goods such as coffee and chocolate and threatening the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries.

The World Development Movement (WDM) will issue a damning report today on the growing role of hedge funds and banks in the commodities markets in recent years, during which time cocoa prices have more than doubled, energy prices have soared and coffee has fluctuated dramatically.

The charity's demands for the British financial watchdog to follow the US in cracking down on such speculation comes against a backdrop of cocoa prices jumping to a 33-year high as it emerged that a London hedge fund had snapped up a large part of the world's stock of beans. On Friday, traders say, Armajaro took delivery of 240,100 tonnes of cocoa the biggest from London's Liffe exchange in 14 years and equal to about 7% of annual global production, according to the Financial Times.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/19/speculators-commodities-food-price-rises

Traders will face new rules aimed at making it easier for regulators to prove manipulation in markets for commodities such as oil, wheat and natural gas under the financial overhaul awaiting President Barack Obamas signature.

The legislation also targets any activity that shows a reckless disregard for orderly trading in the closing period, during which the days settlement prices are determined. The provision targets a practice known as smashing or banging the close, where traders attempt to bully the days settlement price by buying or selling large volumes just before the close.

Its going to be very much like the standard for pornography, said Gary DeWaal, general counsel for Newedge USA LLC, the worlds largest futures broker. The CFTC is going to say, we know orderly when we see it. And thats going to be a bone of contention.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-19/commodity-manipulation-may-be-easier-to-prove-with-u-s-financial-overhaul.html

u want a good idea for chocolate biz
the cocoa is not the most expensive ingredient
buy some milk

I should have continued watching cocoa for a major short op, today in london now down 4.5 % and US 6%, so much for cornering the market who ever it was!