EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
AUSSIE CROSSES AHEAD & AFTER RBA: The upcoming RBA decision (12:30 am EDT, 4:30 am GMT, 5:30 BST) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but the impact on the already rallying AUDUSD remains doubtful given the break above the all-important 0.9070 resistance. Although a rate hold is widely priced in the market, I see room for AUD downside against the rallying EUR and GBP, both of which have been boosted by robust figures on Monday. GBPAUD makes a CLEAR BREAK ABOVE the 1.4 trend line resistance (from Jul 6 high), which was first addressed in last week’s HOTCHARThttp://bit.ly/drvzV6. This is inline with a bullish call in EURAUD, which not only remained supported above 1.43 double bottom, but is now propped to recpature1.4550s, especially if the RBA addresses softening inflation in its policy statement.
AshraF
Do you see Aud/Usd toppling very shortly- I am short- any thoughts on where it might go to before coming down
This serves as some more proof for the $USD divergence from its safe haven status that Ashraf referred to in his latest ITM, the only question that remains is how long this divergence will last (the divergence in terms of RISK: the USD BUYING being associate with RISK ASSET SELLING).
I turned to the $DIXI (I chart the $DIXI futures btw, SEP contract now) and it appears it has taken its first run at the 50% of the move from 74ish to 88.9ish (daily chart)... The $DIXI has been selling off in a well defined corrective channel, and support has held at the 81.55 (50%) level, which the next major support NOT far below 79.80 (61.8%)... The 200 day SMA is also converging with PX - and sits at 80.845... I am sure you get the picture I am painting, but I believe the $USD is showing its first signs of bottoming out- or at least is showing a bullish divergence on my oscillator (4 and 1 hour) in conjunction with some pretty big support levels...
I would imagine, a solid hold of support for the $DIXI at these levels would re-energize $USD bulls a bit, and open the door to the test of the 90 level, where it failed at previously, and is also the 2009 high. A test of the 90 handle, IMO is going to be one of the BIGGEST events for the $USD for a while, a break higher would be almost unreal in this market, but never-the-less could very well be on the table soon enough.
SO- to wrap this up IF / WHEN the $DIXI finds support, and IF that is in the VERY near future, I am looking for $AUD/USD to play catchup with $AUD/JPY and the $USD/CAD to play catchup with the $VIX... (and if today was the $DIXI bottom) I am looking for $AUD/USD to break its .89 and head to at least .87 support in near term... And $USD/CAD to explode past its 1.04 resistance and more-then-likely then call up the 1.05 and 1.06 handles rather quickly...
OF COURSE this ALL relies on THE AUD/JPY (all JPY x's for that matter) and Equities (Specifically SPX) to continue lower, making lower lows and lower highs... So that RISK continues to sell off / be taken off...
-Dan
Thanks
Private Sector Credit for June + 0.2 %m/m + 2.8 % y/y from 0.5 % m/m in May versus expectations of 0.4 % m/m
Housing Credit in June + 0.4 % m/m + 8.2 % y/y from + 0.7 % m/m in May
Other Personal Credit in June 0.3 % m/m + 3.1 % y/y from + 0.4 % m/m in May
Business Credit in June 0% m/m 5.0 % y/y from + 0.4 % m/m in May
Housing credit rose in June as a result in an increase in lending to both owner-occupiers and investors. Private credit weakened in June as consumers reacted to higher interest rates and wary of the economic recovery.
Aussie has steadily weakened throughout the session with traders taking risk off as is usually athe case ahead of the weekend. The Aussie was unchanged after the credit data at 0.8980/84.