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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 17:27
Heres on the YEN and how NOT to read the DeathCross
http://www.youtube.com/cmcmarketsplc

Ashraf
rim
Turkey
Posts: 121
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 11:55
Dear Ashraf ,

When JPY is so low , there should be important events;Hence ;

Do you expect an intervention from Bank of Japan or a rate hike from US ?

Thanks
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 8:58
USD/JPY is incredible cheap here. Going long at 85.50 but will add more if it goes lower...
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 18:56
heres that story on japanese FX margin trading

Japan limits forex trades of Mrs Watanabes
By Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo

Published: August 1 2010 19:11 | Last updated: August 1 2010 19:11

Japans Mrs Watanabes, the shorthand name for the large number of Japanese retail investors, are being restricted in the amount they can borrow to finance their bets in the currency markets, in a move by the Japanese regulator to eliminate what it sees as excessive speculation by inexperienced traders.

The new rule on margin trading, which came into effect on Sunday, limits the amount that retail traders can borrow to 50 times the amount of collateral used. From next year, rules will be tightened further to lower the limit to 25 times. There were no limits imposed before.

Regulators have become concerned because foreign exchange brokerages can offer retail investors leverage of as high as 400 times. Ahead of the rule change, most retail investors unwound yen positions which contravened the new leverage limits, contributing to the currencys climb late last week to its highest this year, one trader said.

Junya Tanase, a currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase, cautioned that there could be some market volatility in early trading on Monday as traders unwind remaining positions at a time when the market tends to be illiquid.

The impact on the yen market is likely to be much more pronounced next year with the further lowering of borrowing limits. Traders said that without the added leverage, some small traders could stop trading altogether. Yuji Saito, a director in the FX department at Crdit Agricole in Tokyo, said market liquidity in Tokyo was likely to fall. Wealthier traders, however, might open accounts overseas and trade without restriction from there, he said.

One currency day trader, who claimed not to use leverage of more than 50 times, posted a blog saying: It feels like [currency trading] will be a no-go for people who arent rich. Itll become quite an investment. Well, there are probably only a few people who win in the currency markets, so a good result might be that the number of people getting indebted will drop.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

Ashraf
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 11:08
very interesting qiman, im looking at the todays cadjpy spike up again, this cross does seem to have some quite nasty whipsaws , i have a key resistance @86.55 but its again testing the top trendline , on the question of lower leverages wouldn't this mean less liquidity? wouldn't that in turn make 'volatility' even worse? im thinking..(i may be wrong, as i usually am) increased whipsaws around resistance /support levels and key psychological levels, as traders try to capitalise...???
Wasup
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 54
14 years ago
Jul 30, 2010 18:38
Thanks Qiman.
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Jul 30, 2010 18:29
Regarding the question from Wasup, here is a post I made in this same thread on July 14th, I repost it here and it offers one opinion:

"An upcoming change to Japan's margin trading regulations will likely support the yen in the coming weeks. Some analysts estimate margin trading comprises as much as 20% to 30% of yen trading liquidity here on any given day.

Last year, the Financial Services Agency announced it would set limits on how much foreign-exchange investors can buy on margin, in order to protect "Mrs. Watanabe" - no relation to the Your Party leader. The common surname has become the collective moniker for Japan's retail investors, in a country where housewives are often in charge of family budget and investment decisions.

The plan calls for the leverage cap to be set at 50 times the amount of principle cash committed starting in August, and then further cut to 25 times next year.

The rule change came after a spate of local media reports about some of these housewives losing huge sums, trading on margin hundreds of times the minimum amount they were required to invest up front to open their accounts.

Tohru Sasaki, chief foreign-exchange strategist for Japan at J.P. Morgan Securities in Tokyo, estimated in a report this week that "Mr. and Mrs.Watanabe" hold about 6 trillion yen ($67 billion) of short-yen positions, which he said is "almost the same level as the peak in 2007."

While Sasaki doesn't expect a flood of unwinding, he does expect some yen-buying stemming from the new regulations, as the Watanabes unwind their positions to comply with the new rules."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-term-yen-support-is-real-2010-07-14?link=kiosk
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jul 30, 2010 18:22
Wasup,. tough question, it might reduce japanese retail traders' appetite for playing FX but i cannot say what impact on direction as the impact on price from retailers is sketchy


Ashraf
Wasup
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 54
14 years ago
Jul 30, 2010 18:13
Hi Ashraf,
Would you mind giving expert opinion on this news.
FSA Japan (Financial Service Agency), has decided that all Forex brokers in Japan will be required to reduce their trading leverage to 1:50, from a 1:100 many have these days, becoming effective next August 1st; such decision
What would be the impact like? Bearish or bullish for Euryen and Usdyen
eduard
Romania
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jul 30, 2010 12:09
in 117 is ma 100