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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
La Puzzy Digitalle
Kukuaka , Bangladesh
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 21:40
they come from todays bloomberg , 1.13 by the end of the year ?
its kind of radical TP

fed has no choice but to announce more quantative easing , i dont see how he got this target
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 19:01
hey guys, glad to see such the indepth insights and analysis.

La Puzze, those forecasts by TD are interesting. were they issued by Shaun Osborne? He's had a stellar track record in 2008 and 2009.

Euro bulls are unlikely to throw the towl as longa s $1.3510 holds for the week.

Ashraf
Ignore
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 18:14
La Puzsy Digitless 'dazed and confused' = drunk and disorderly?
Ignore
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 18:08
Absolutely,catnip This is a common cb strategy which I employ as some know like subway90..lol
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 17:38
The approach is simple: CBs hedge their devises portfolio such that the risk ( the value at risk)
for the own currency and/or economy is minimum. Traders go for the max profit. These two are incompatible regimes of decision making. There is however a simple solution to the dilemma.
Do not trrade one pair but a multiple of pairs such that a loss in one is compensated by a profit in the others. Hence the risk to lose is zero. So what you do is to take the profits and let the losses run until the hedge strategy of the CBs and banks brings them back to the positive territory. If you do backtesting you will see this strategy always works.
sultan5568
jubail industrial, Saudi Arabia
Posts: 10
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 17:22
DEAR ASHRAF, EUR/AUD CAN BE HIT 1.4250 THIS COMING DAYS.
subway90
Korea Sout
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 17:18
yes DaveO...
a lot can be learned from the worst traders.... :)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 17:03
My simple response is the word "always" is not in the trader dictionary. Compromise is. Buffet made some pretty bad mistakes which he might not have made had he read a very common sense economics' analyst. Not talking about an acedemic here, just good old common sense. So even Buffet is a compromise. I don't know you very well Catnip but I get the impression your trade targets are rather vague. Forgive me if I am wrong. I have to have very specific targets to be able to work very tight stops in my trading. Equallly, targets for TP's at logical levels. Fundamentals cannot give me specific targets. My tech analyis can. Short term fundamentals can support or otherwise a trade idea derived from the technicals. That's about how I see it but I shall make a point of learning any value from you and this forum.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 16:40
Goodness...whenever f(x) is a function of itself f(f(x)) then you see "growth" patterns.
This assumes that every price p is a function of previous prices. This necessarily yields "scaleless similar patterns". But no one has yet demonstrated p is ALWAYS a function of previous p. So EW is about as reliable as coin flipping but less reliable than probing an oracle. Such as Buffet. Bernanke is not an oracle.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 4, 2010 16:18
A little off-topic but every year in Cornwall the people of Padstow return from all corners of the world to celebrate their Obyoss Day. This is their May-Day get-together.

They spend the day getting slowly drunk dancing in the streets with the Obyoss which was designed to frighten away the Spanish ships in bygone times. How's that for fundamental irrationality. They also have their "Blacky" day which needless to say becomes more contraversial every year. We have very few immigrants in Cornwall as you might imagine.

I liken markets to typical human behaviour. EW reflects the sum total of human (trader) behaviour and believe it or not we have to include the banks and politicians into the human race. Even the likes of Goldman Sachs have to be classified into the human category. Algo bots are shaped by human emotion. Its like one enormous pie of human emotion.

EWP is the underlying structure of the markets just as fibonacci principles apply to even Catnip's body geometry. Not sure if fibs can be found in the brain but I suspect they will be.