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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 14:32
@Qingyu do u trade indexes? Whats your view...overbot?
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 14:26
gunjack, thank you. its just a joke. i use both analysis.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 14:18
@Qingyu the part of london I come from a tealeaf is a Thief. Thats the rhyming slang
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 14:10
Interesting points raised by Ashraf abt the DJIA and SPX...I'm not one for TA but to me if we cross 12150-12200 level on DJIA then can see further gains as the year long trend/range will b broken.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 2:00
am i good tealeaf reader? cat?

;)
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 1:59
funny, the cross around 1350.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 1:58
last time after 2 years recovery, spx500 pullback from 1220 to 1140, around 20 points below previous high.

this time previous high at 1220, so we may see 1180 agian.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 1:42
maybe feb, nice guess, two years after 09 low.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 1:40
oil/spx500 this upward trend from sep last year with same slope.

last time spx500 upward trend from mar 09 to apr 10, same slope, no major pullback. oil have a little bit different, more slower.

i dont think 8 or 9 weeks really matter. but the funny thing is two upward trend line will cross at this or next month.

after tealeaf reading, i still not sure where is correction, jan/feb/mar? 1300/1330/1350?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 0:54
The DJIA is up for the 8th consecutive week, while the S&P500 ended the week lower after 7 straight weekly gains. In the case of the Dow, the last time there was an 8-week winning streak was in March-April, before the index dropped 13% coinciding with the week of the Flash Crash. The weekly RSI on the Dow has exceeded the 70% level for the 1st time sincethat same last week of April. Aside from the Mar-Apr 2010 period when the Dow gained for 8 straight weeks, it was back in Nov 2003-Jan 2004 when such an interrupted winning streak occurred. The time before that was in Jan-Mar 1998. As for a winning streak longer than 8 weeks, youd have to go to 1995 when the Dow-30 rallied for 10 straight weeks (Mar-May 1995).

In the case of the S&P500, it posted 7 consecutive winning weeks, the longest period since 2007. We have to go back to Nov 2003-Jan 2004 to find 9-straight winning weeks in the S&P500. Combining the historical implications of these extended rallies with the overstretched oscillators, equity markets could be looking at the much anticipated sell-off that many of us market watchers have gotten so wrong. There are other elements that im looking at in the currency market as well as in the intercommodity landscape, to which I will dedicate a 1/3 of my time in Day-long intensive FX/Interdynamic workshop on Sunday in London. Here are the details to register. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/workshop01/
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