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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 22:22
Ummmmm, did I tell you guys that CL was heading for 85 when oil was 91 and the world was bullish? ;) Remind me, wake me up... ;) ;)


Asad
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 21:58
daveO
a one oclock stroll on the riverside. a stop by a merchant. watching a "cycle". going to the atm. returning to the merchant and buying the "cycle". "one is enough?" answer: hamdoullah.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 21:27
If I remember correctly the honourable gentleman was eventually run out of town by his financial advisers :-) They bankrupted him with their "cycles".
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 21:24
Chloe, yep I read about the 60yr cycle. My answer to that:-

"Dammit Sir, when will these cycles start to behave"----- famous quote !
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 21:22
CL, 85.60 next beer stop ?
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 11:16
heres something that ashraf found interesting @ the workshop---there wasa lady there who asked ashraf what he thought of some pl sayn that some commoditys have topped out at the high in a 60yr bull cycle apparently she follows the gan,i thought ashraf was intigued by what she said..anybody out thereknow much about it or can comment on it..gl guys:)
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 1:53
I bought some SDS before the NY close.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=SDS

Ashrfaf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Jan 24, 2011 20:35
Have bot my first batch of index puts. 11800 puts have been purchased. Will buy more the closer we get to 12k and above...lets hope this works...
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 24, 2011 17:22
S&PX WEEKLY CHART & the RSI tops.
http://chart.ly/h5pxfc6


S&P500 pushes towards 1290 but 1300 is not expected. The S&P500 had its first weekly decline last week after posting 7 consecutive weekly gains, which was the longest since 2007. The last time the index had a peak-to-trough decline of more than 4% was in late November-early December. Dow-30 continued to push ahead as last it week it posted its 8th straight weekly increase. The last time the Dow-30 had an 8-week winning streak was in March-April, after which index dropped 13% coinciding with the week of the Flash Crash. This same time last year (Jan 20th) G5 equity began an 8-9% selloff that lasted 6 weeks. The catalyst was Paul Volckers announcement to curtail banks proprietary trading operations. Both the S&P500 and the Dow-30 have exceeded all major technical measures (week and daily moving averages as well as key retracements). Aside from the Mar-Apr 2010 period when the Dow-30 gained for 8 straight weeks, it was back in Nov 2003-Jan 2004 when such an interrupted winning streak occurred. The time before that was in Jan-Mar 1998. As for a winning streak longer than 8 weeks, we must revert back to 1995 when the Dow-30 rallied for 10 straight weeks (Mar-May 1995).

Fundamentally, Wednesdays FOMC decision isnt expected to hint at curtailing the $600 bln QE2 program. The expected improvement in the FOMCs outlook (language) may help boost bond yields and allow USD some stability. Catalysts for any pullback in equities could well be downside surprises in earnings. But China tightening does remain at the top of the list of catalysts for the next leg down in gold, silver, copper and oil to the favour of the USD. FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER so as NOT TO MISS THESE UPDATES. Although I sent these updates by email to my subsciribers, you can get them the minute theyre released by following me on Twitter.com/alaidi

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 24, 2011 15:43
GOLD FELL BELOW its 55 and 100-day moving averages for the first time since July. The next Chinese rate hike (hike in interest rates and not just reserve requirements) is likely to occur on the Chinese New Year (Feb 3rd). The metal remains vulnerable to breaching below $1290/oz, which would denote a confirmed a break of the Oct 2008 trendline resistance. Key subsequent downside targets stand at $1,238 (55 WMA) and $1,125 (100 WMA). Only a breach below $1,100 would imply serious reconsideration of the secular bull market.

Ashraf
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