Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of England are both set to decide on interest rates this week, with the former widely expected to cut by 25-bps to 2.75% on Wednesday and the latter seen holding steady at 0.50%. Despite the full market pricing of the RBNZ rate cut, NZD could lose more ground in the event that risk appetite falls on the defensive later in the week. NZDUS continues to struggle holding above the 200-day MA as mentioned in Wednesdays Charts Video for Thomson Reutershttp://bit.ly/ gaSp50 , therefore we need to see a close below 0.7360 for a confirmed bearish close towards 0.7270s.

And with the strong possibility that the BoE will keep rates unchanged on Thursday, we could see GBPUSD displaying renewed selling at the $1.6330s back onto $1.6250s. AUDUSD 4 hour techs ongoing failure to regain 1.02 continue to show a repetitive pullback towards 1.01 but support remains at 1.0050s. Aussie jobs report later this week will be key in influencing Aussie techs to test the intermediate lows.

Ashraf

AUDUSD (not included in USD Index) goes from bad to worse, struggling to stay atop the 1.01 figure its high profile failure to break above 1.02. I reiterate that AUDUSD shorts must be protected above 1.02, while looking for incremental targets at 1.0120, 1.0060 and 0.9980. Canadas Feb PMI exploded to 69.3 from 41.4. I cannot emphasize enough my bearishness on NZDCAD (as was done in past 2 days), down -180 pips as the fundamentals deteriorate for NZD and continue to brighten for Canada. NZDUSD IS NOW BELOW its 200-day MA of 0.7360, testing the Dec 2010 double bottom.

Ashraf