Euro's Third Down Leg

by Ashraf Laidi
Dec 11, 2009 0:10 | 198 Comments

Euro's Third Down Leg - Eurdec10 (Chart 1)

The current leg down in EURUSD has exceeded each of its previous 2 down cycles in magnitude (22 Sep-Oct 2nd & Oct 26-Nov 2nd) and is at risk of extending losses towards an preliminary target of $1.4615, followed by $1.4280. With the USD index has finally closing above its 55-day moving average for the first time since April and crude oil vulnerable to extending losses towards $66 after having broken below its Jul trend line support, EURUSD is apt to test its next preliminary target at $1.4615 (Sep 11 high, Sep 21 low, Nov 1 low, Nov 2 low). The fundamental arguments for these euro risks emerge from increased global risk aversion (Dubai, Ireland, Spain & Greece), as well as nascent signs of stability in US jobs. Although we see no change in US interest rates before H1 2010, markets pricing of USD-favourable yield spreads is helping to lift the greenback. EURUSD upside capped at initial resistance of $1.4770, but the previous support of $1.4820-25 will be the barrier for the bulls.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 198) View All Comments
rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 3:06
OK fellas - who called in the PPT to restore order to the risk trades?

They know they must get eur over 1.45, gbp over 1.61 and aud over 0.93 before europe opens
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 2:45
may need eur/gbp to be at .8955 for that to occur.
salem
Jordan
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 2:43
Hi all ,
eur/$ might brake friday low 1.4266
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 2:41
Next stop Eur 1.4430: will it take the express lanes or the local?
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 2:39
Salem,

Welcome to the Forum.

Don't forget to vote for Ashraf at the Shorty Awards. Also, you HAVE to state a reason for your vote to be counted. Thanks!

Asad
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 2:34
Look at them all scurry back into the trash gbp and eur at 1.607 and 1.4472, respectively. Pairs havent been this "cheap" in 24 hours so they must buy. They must buy every dip because they've been told "risk on".
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 2:22
eur/usd just hit 1.4455 before they called in the calvary to shore things up.

Ashraf may be correct with his 1.42 call-perhaps a day or two early!

The funny thing is, people think it is at support. It didn't even fill the manic run-up of yesterday yet. Closed at 1.4417 on Friday. So they think they have the buy of the century with eur at 1.4455.
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 0:31
...so we know what type of traders/investors visit the SuzeOrmanShow...and what type of advice they get! *lol*


Asad
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 0:29

Hi all ,

Common , let"s support our man !

OMG !!! WE TALK HERE ABOUT FINANCE ?!!?

check this ooouuuttt :



Linda Matthews I nominate @SuzeOrmanShow for a Shorty Award in #finance because...I can.
27 minutes ago

salem
amman, Jordan
Posts: 1
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 0:18
From my studies I beliwve $/chf will reach 1.035