CADJPY Redux

by Ashraf Laidi

Jan 15, 2010 4:39

CADJPY had been unable to break that 90.20-30 resistance, which proved to be a major confluence; 38% retracement of the decline from the 125.29 high (Nov 07) to the 68.38 low (Jan 09) as well as the low from Aug 05 and the high from Jun & Aug 09. The string of disappointing economic news from Canada (unexpected payrolls loss, unexpected trade deficit and tumble in building permits) has started to disrupt the loonie from its recent bull run. Although oil price strength has boosted CAD as of late, we may see a situation where risk aversion and stock market nervousness during earnings season to weigh on the commodity currencies vs. JPY, in which case CAD could be at the top of the list due to these fading fundamentals. Preliminary target seen at 88.20, followed by 87.80. The downleg could ultimately extend to continue towards 87.30. CADJPY volatility could trigger several bounces above 89.50s, therefore shorts must consider stops between 89.60 and 90.

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