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EURUSD & US 10-yr Yields

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 4, 2009 12:32 | 4 Comments

EURUSD & US 10-yr Yields - Trsys EUR Feb 4 (Chart 1)

Thw rally in long US yields could trigger further EUR pullbacks... as the 2 1/2 month highs in US yields may be extended on expectations of temporary stability in US data, which could drive EURUSD back down towards interim support of $1.2780s, but key foundation at 1.2660 seen still holding. 100-day MA in 10 yr yields has yet to be attained, especially that no breach has been seen since September. 3.10% seen holidng for now.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 4 of 4) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Feb 5, 2009 16:05
Hi Jamshed, the outlook in this chart for lower EURUSD is not for the long term but for the ensuing 24-48 hrs. and it did fall below $1.28 to interim support of 1.2760. I agree with you about how the euro is actually helping create stability in these countries. And as far as treasuries are concerned, i did mention in previous notes that rising yields were a result of supply issues. but yields could go up further if data stabilziies. Are you a CMC client? if you are, why dont you send enquiries to the folks there and say you really want a seminar with me.

I started doing seminars in London and will be going to Singapore next month. This month will do NY.

Japanese cannot go into game of intervention ight now becasue the fundamentals are geared against them (lower global rates, negative global risk appetite) etcc..

And thanks for getting the book !

Ashraf
jamshed
Pakistan
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Feb 5, 2009 12:23
Hi Ashraf,

dont agree here.
10 year yield is increasing since more US debt is coming online along with 900 b stimulus. Bad bank idea is still in the picture. all this is showing up in the 10 year yield and if it stays like this, within this month fed will start buying the 30 year bonds and try to decrease the mortgage rates.
all this is negative for the dollar within 3-6 weeks. EURUSD will rally towards 1.45.
the US is tinkering with fiscal policy, monetary policy, pseudo nationalization and printing money is the best bet for the US Fed.

there is a lot of bickering in the eu about the strength of the euro hurting spain, italy, ireland, greece - but infact euro is giving them serious stability. imagine what would have happened to the italien lira if it had been around. iceland, hungary, rumania etc are looking at a faster entry into the euro to acheive this stability.
inshort, the stability of the eurozone is a long term positive for the euro.

I am a quite surprised at the reluctance of the Japenese to intervene in the Fx markets to devalue the Yen. Its clear that this is the only way to compete globally. How else can the Japanease trigger growth? Any thoughts on this??

Btw... I ordered your book and will come back with more questions :-)

I am in Munich - any CMC seminar planned in the frankfurt area?
br,
jamshed
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 13:42
Hi Keivan, if you're interested in more of the technicals you can check out Steve Nison's book on candle sticks, he wrote many, but you can get his latest. Also Person's book on this link below
http://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Technical-Trading-Tactics/dp/047158455X/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1233754832&sr=1-7


Best

Ashraf
Keivan
Tehran, Iran
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 13:11
Hi Mr. Ashraf,
I just received you book and I am going to read it.
I have a question:
What books do you sugest besaide your book?
I already studied Jonh Morphy technical analysis.
I need to know how to trade like you, using the indicators and charts that you use.
Please advice
Thanks
Keivan
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