Multi Year Equity Cycles

by Ashraf Laidi

Feb 18, 2009 14:30 | 1 Comment

With both the Dow and S&P500 nearing their Nov lows, a breach of those levels is increasingly imminent. My forecasts suggest at least another 30-35% slide in the major indices into the next 6-8 months to be made possible by the next round of hedge fund (and mutual fund) redemptions. Recall that that 52% and 38% peak-to-trough declines in the S&P and Dow in the 2000-2 bear market emerged mainly due to overvalued stocks (and not on a banking or housing crisis). the likelihood for additional declines from the current 53% and 47% peak-to-trough declines is significant. integrating these analysis with my latest on Equity/Gold ratio, 5,300 Dow and 520 S&P500 looms large.

More Hot-Charts

• Nasdaq100 Update

  Sep 12, 2024 18:11 | by Ashraf Laidi
  Since entering Nasdaq100 Longs on Monday at 18550, we kept accumulating and locking gains until 19230 yesterday and 19380 today.

• Pre CPI Charts

  Sep 11, 2024 13:05 | by Ashraf Laidi
  Will Nasdaq extend gains towards 18980s this week before retracing lower on the week of the Fed.

• Nasdaq100 Daily & Weekly

  Jul 17, 2024 17:53 | by Ashraf Laidi
  The triple top in weekly RSI suggests the following price and time implications:  . PRICE: 18700. TIME: Duration of downside may last for another 3 to 4 weeks.