Multi Year Equity Cycles

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 18, 2009 14:30 | 1 Comment

Multi Year Equity Cycles - SPX Quarterly Feb 17 (Chart 1)

With both the Dow and S&P500 nearing their Nov lows, a breach of those levels is increasingly imminent. My forecasts suggest at least another 30-35% slide in the major indices into the next 6-8 months to be made possible by the next round of hedge fund (and mutual fund) redemptions. Recall that that 52% and 38% peak-to-trough declines in the S&P and Dow in the 2000-2 bear market emerged mainly due to overvalued stocks (and not on a banking or housing crisis). the likelihood for additional declines from the current 53% and 47% peak-to-trough declines is significant. integrating these analysis with my latest on Equity/Gold ratio, 5,300 Dow and 520 S&P500 looms large.

 

More Hot-Charts

  • Bitcoin versus Miners Performance  Chart

    Bitcoin versus Miners Performance

    Apr 9, 2024 16:02 | by Ashraf Laidi
    As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
  • Gold, Bitcoin, USD Combo Chart

    Gold, Bitcoin, USD Combo

    Jun 22, 2023 16:46 | by Ashraf Laidi
    I mentioned last week  on here on how and why both gold and USD are falling together. Since then, the trend accelerated alongside another detail.
  • تفسير مراحل الذهب  Chart

    تفسير مراحل الذهب

    Mar 17, 2023 21:28 | by Ashraf Laidi
    .
Hot-Chart Archives
Comments (Showing latest 1 of 1) View All Comments
FL
GuangZhou, China
Posts: 14
15 years ago
Mar 10, 2009 5:34
Hi Ashraf,

It's Splendid analysis, as you say Dow will be Falling In path 5300 This process
When probably will arrive at you to think? So looks like words AUD/USD Falls approaches 0.61, and EUR/USD Creates the low point again Was in the reason only matter. You thought that which establishment dead end is quite suitable in? I mean AUD and EUR rate.

Thanks a lot