EURUSD and Oil

by Ashraf Laidi

Mar 26, 2009 13:17

While the positive correlation between EURUSD and oil is well documented the time lag between the two merits scrutiny as it has turned consistent in favour of the euro over the past 16 months. The chart shows that bottoms in EURUSD have led bottoms in oil prices and so have peaks in the exchange rate and oil. Considering $1.33 to likely hold into mid April, this will likely boost oil into $55. The major downside for the euro is for the repetitive failure to breach above $1.3740 to transition into a new wave of selling into $1.3245 and $1.31 inn which case may trigger $47 per barrel.

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