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EURCHF Still has Legs

by Ashraf Laidi
Apr 9, 2009 13:43 | 9 Comments

EURCHF Still has Legs - Euchf Apr 9 (Chart 1)

EURCHF rally has more legs as the franc-selling intervention is reminded by the SNB and the Euro licks wounds from another credit downgrade (Ireland). But an expected rejuvenation of risk appetite ahead of the Easter break could bolster EURCHF back to 1.53 and onto TL resistance of 1.5350. Holding above the 100-day MA was a positive sign, while the stabilization of stochastics at the 70.87 paves the way for fresh momentum.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 9 of 9) View All Comments
glory
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 10
16 years ago
Apr 14, 2009 1:20
Hi Ashraf,

Tks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 13, 2009 18:06
Glory, it depends on your margin utilization. If you're using more than 30 or 40% of your margin then you may want to start scaling down or exiting all together. But like I said, SNB has shown strong opposition to rising CHF. so they may draw line in the sand around 1.50.

Ashraf
glory
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Apr 13, 2009 16:27
My entry point was at 1.5250 and still holding. Did not place any stops. Intention long. Whats your advice on this?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 13, 2009 15:24
Glory, the attempt to break 1.53 was a failure. But id rather remain bearish CHF as the Swiss National Bank has repeatedly threatened it would start selling its currency again. Im not sure where your stops are and how's your acct margin requirement, but I see support at 1.50 (50% retracement). Consider today's HotChart of selling NZDJPY.

Ashraf
glory
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 10
16 years ago
Apr 13, 2009 14:24
Hi Ashraf,

I have been monitoring EURCHF since april 9th but it does not seems to break to 1.53. Today it went below 1.52. Does your Hot Chart on EURCHF still stands? Do we excpect to see a reversal to 1.53 from current level?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 12, 2009 13:07
Andrew, my website has the charts on speculators' positioning (net long/shorts) on the Analytics section
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/charts/speculators-futures-fx-positions.asp

The fundamentals for FX carry trades were coming back as stocks rallied over the last 4 weeks. But be careful as this may change for yen positions in the event that stocks fail to rally beyond current levels.

Ashraf
hkboss
hong kong, Hong Kong
Posts: 1
16 years ago
Apr 12, 2009 8:13
Dear Ashraf,

I have read your chapter 5 of your book.
Can you introduce which website can show updated net long/short position of each currency in
chicago merchantile exchange IMM?

are the fundamentals of carry trades coming back shortly?

do you expect copper price to peak or Aussie to break above 0.72 this coming week?

thanks
Andrew
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 9, 2009 17:24
Houram, yes, euro is falling across the board for no particular reason. EURGBP collpased due to Barclays successful sale of IShares, which is dragging euro across the board.. it;s even falling vs CHF. Id call this heavy selling ahead of the 2-day weekendmore than anything.

Ashraf
houram
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 55
16 years ago
Apr 9, 2009 17:03
Hi Ashraf,
The unemployment rate in Canada has reached 8% but EUR-CAD has dropped to 1.6135. Is there a specific reason for that?
Thanks
Houram
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