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USDCAD vs S&P500

by Ashraf Laidi
Apr 23, 2009 14:11 | 12 Comments

USDCAD vs S&P500 - CAD Stocks Apr 23 (Chart 1)

The increasingly negative correlation between USDCAD and S&P500 reflects the increasingly positive correlation between the Canadian dollar and equities, as the current represents risk appetite (widely vulnerable to declines in US weakness and oil prices and vice versa). Just we have seen S&P500 topping out at 869, USDCAD bottomed at 1.1980, while the bounce in USDCAD to 1.25 from the BoC rate cut occurred along with

the retreat in equities. Considering expectations for equity indices to consolidate into the next week before pulling back towards 800,we could see USDCAD retest 1.2440 and 1.2550. USDCAD support remains at 1.2270-80, while S&P500 resistance stands at 855 and 870.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 12) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 19:26
Georg, I see oil has more upside towards $53-54, while USDX eyes 82.92 as interim target.

JJStone, only if we close above 880.

Kim, de qual acciones ?


Ashraf
Kim
Bilbao, Spain
Posts: 1
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 16:26
Gracias Sr. por sus anlisis tan precisas! He comprado oro, lo que me ayudo bastante a reponerme de la perdida de algunas de mis acciones. Muy agradecido, le saludo atentamente.
jjstone
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 45
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 16:14
Mr. Laidi when would you close out a short on the 500.
jjstone
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 45
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 16:09
Only use TL for oil.
Georg
CapeTown, South Africa
Posts: 2
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 15:14
Hi Ashraf, Oil has traced out a bullish looking cup and handle pattern while at the same time the USD index chart looks quite bearish to me. However, these patterns appear at odds with a selloff in stocks. Would you consider being long oil at this point?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 9:18
John, during falling stocks Aussie seen under pressure against USD, JPY but less so against NZD. But i would recommend opting for selling NZDJPY and NZDUSD during flaling stocks rather than AUD or AUDJPY. why? becasue AUD declines have proven short lived or limited.

Ashraf
John Lethal
spore, Singapore
Posts: 1
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 4:59
Ashraf, good to hear from you again. Stocks rally seems to hit over-bought mark and going by the risk aversion analysis, how do you see the AUDJPY, AUDUSD and AUDNZD pairs moving forward?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 0:18
Rob, very shrewd of you to hedge with gold. I bought silver 4 weeks ago then some more a week ago. It's a long term trade. Remain on the look out for any break in that 2-mth pattern. Today's BoC surprise was a real lesson.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
Apr 23, 2009 23:16
Great chart - looks like equities knocked out risk aversion once again. Fortunately I had bought gold and it helped as a hedge against shorting CAD/JPY. The end of next week should mark the end of the 2-month bear rally and perhaps spur risk aversion again. Looks like going long with risk appetite might be overbought for now. Looking forward to more daily updates. Thanks for your help.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 23, 2009 22:19
qtmspin, the correlation b/ween USDCAD and S&P500 has intensified to -0.76 during period from March 5th to today, compared to -0.67 in the period from Sep 2008 to today.

Ashraf
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