Oil & Yen pairs

by Ashraf Laidi

May 18, 2009 16:58

Oil's prior rally largely coincided with the recent gains in equities and a resulting sell-off in the yen. Any deepening retreat in global risk appetite is expected to further weigh on the pullback in oil prices. Our case for lower prices has already been made by touching upon the Gold/Oil ratio. Fridays report from the IEA forecasting a 3% decline in 2009 global oil from 2008 (bgigest since '81) also added to the selling. With prices seen capped at $58.90, prospects for any substantial yen declines remain limited. GBPJPY is likely to face increased initial selling pressure at 148.70, while EURJPY remains capped at 131.80. Currently, EURJPY faces more downside than GBPJP, but do watch EURGBP for clues of a recovery.

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