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EURCHF Tests the Upside

by Ashraf Laidi
May 27, 2009 9:44 | 11 Comments

EURCHF Tests the Upside - EURCHF May 27 (Chart 1)

EURCHF looks to break out of a 8-month trend line resistance which was dictated by the francs safe haven flows, the deleveraging out of the euro as well as the Eastern European-driven banking woes. But with the ECB the only major central bank without zero interest rates and the Eastern European troubles appearing to have dissipated, EURCHF seems set to a break out of the 1.518 TL resistance, which coincides with the 38% retracement of the decline from the 1.6360 high to the 1.4460 low. And with the Swiss National Bank insisting on keeping its currency weak, the current euro-wide play will also likely help achieve the 1.54 target. Only accelerating declines in equities are seen as the major driver to the downside below the 1.4980 TL support.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 11) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 31, 2009 13:40
merzak, yes, the banking issues in Eastern Europe are considered as INDIRECT problems for the Eurozone, which would hurt Eurozone to the extent of a failure in East Europe. Such a failure would help swissie. But with global markets holding up, franc may remain under pressure.

Ashraf
emerzak
blida, Algeria
Posts: 1
15 years ago
May 31, 2009 11:39
sir ashraf
you said that there is crisis only in spain but also in all roumania y hungaria .where the suisse franc is deeply concerned .
cordialement
merzak
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 28, 2009 20:56
Reproduced chart from today's article

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 28, 2009 20:54
Tim, As someone famously said: "the only race the US is winning is the race to the edge of the cliff". As i explained to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph, the major problems of the Eurozone are related to Eastern European banks and NOT INNATELY part of the Eurozone.

Check out the chart above and that EURUSD support.

Ashraf
Tim
North Carolina , United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 28, 2009 15:15
Ashraf,

" have long said EUR acts as the anti dollar (first currency to rally) during escalating negativity in the dollar." Sorta had that part
" ECB rates being higher ... the euro will be boosted. " Somehow I just haven't been able to see how their rates are that high comparatively...maybe that's part of my issue.
"and not debasing its currency via quant easing, the euro will be boosted" 'debasing' is a good word and they certainly haven't been as guilty of that as US - but still aren't they in the race to the bottom?
"Theres no housing crisis in Europe (except spain) " Good point
"banking is sick but not as sick as the US. " Maybe I've been operating with bad information or interpretation, but my impressions of the overall differences were that they were barely impeceptable and very mutable.

I appreciate your perpspectives Ashraf.
Administrator
London, UK
Posts: 8
15 years ago
May 28, 2009 1:38
"Attach Chart" TEST BY ADMINISRATOR
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 27, 2009 22:27
Spanish bank Banco Santander took over the name of British banks Abbey and Bradford & Bingley on the day Barcelona toook over Manchester United.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 27, 2009 22:15
Taha, Anybody that claims to tell you they know when "exactly" prices will go, do not take them seriously. i think we could see 1.47 before end end of June. and could see new all time high eurusd in late 2009. As for equities, well, maybe they need to fall very hard for euro to not rally. We shall see. The dollar-equity relationship needs to be followed closely.

Barcelona took Man Utd to school. They hypnotized them. missed my forecast by 1 goal
(i said barca would win 2-1)

Ashraf
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
May 27, 2009 22:01
Hi Ashraf ,
In your unterview in CNBC Arabia , you mentioned that the Euro will hit 1.47 and Gbp 1.65 . could you tell me when will it be exactally ? . I mean in the next week or next month . And what if equity markets retreat or North Korea make any surprise ?? .
Good forecast for BARCELONA but I love Man United .
Taha
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 27, 2009 20:49
Tim, i have long said EUR acts as the anti dollar (first currency to rally) during escalating negativity in the dollar. i have a whole section on that in my book. I also said all over this forum/site/tv interviews that ECB rates being higher and not debasing its currency via quant easing, the euro will be boosted. Theres no housing crisis in Europe (except spain) and banking is sick but not as sick as the US.

I hope this helps explains it

Ashraf
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