Hot-Charts
June Seasonals in Equities
by
Jun 9, 2009 16:33
| 19 Comments
June has proven a losing month for equities along with September. The chart shows the percentage change during the month of June for the S&P500 in each of the 10 years between 1999 and 2008. 7 of the last 10 years ended negative on the month, with 1999, 2003 and 2004 being the only positive years for the month. 2008 was the worst June for the S&P500, losing 7.7%, followed by 2002, 2001 and 2000. US and European equities are well into their 5th week of consolidation, illustrating prolonged signs of peaking oscillators. As we approach earnings season and markets price rising chances of higher interest rates by year-end, the prospects for equities become remain dubious.
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تفسير مراحل الذهب
Mar 17, 2023 21:28 | by Ashraf Laidi.
http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/
Ashraf
Ashraf
I fully understand that you are busy with your business.
And thank you for answering me the question.
Best regards
Qin
Qin, pls do not as me about very short term positions as i cannot answer questions every 15 minutes on this forum. Both AUD and CAD did very well yesterday but are now retreating. The game flow has not changed. dollar-selling remains order of the day and profitatking bouts occur evey now and then.
Simon, i think 10-2 yr spread has more to go. And stocks' rally remains "too perfect".
Ashraf
I really think that market is using any reason to sell USD now.....
If the bond rising, people will say it will be inflation and short USD and long AUD, CAD.......If the bond drop, they say equity is improving.....the result is selling USD and bullish stocks.
The only question should be the timing now......Hope USD will rise a little bit now......I am very disappointed that I closed my positions before the US report came out today.
Best regards
Qin
Simon
But......... I do take all of what you say into account.
I see your Equity vs USD article today too.
As regards stocks though, i think it is fair to say any pull back "should" be temporary "at the moment"
Phew....... Your book too has got me thinking ......... I see 10 year yield dropped today and 2 year has stayed where it ended on friday just about.......... Do you think the 10 - 2 spread is peaking ??
You did say the economy and stocks lag the curve by months to year or so
Also ............ Oil / Gold ratio i am sure is on the up.
But i do think stocks look bullish now ........ If it made a 1-2-3 then i would say bearish ..... But to me S&P looks like it has made a channel congestion since 1st June. It has even made a succession of higher lows since 1st June.
I am guessing and clutching at straws now, but ............ CPI next week ........... Did you hear something about businesses still needing to burn off a lot of inventories ?
Always nice to hear your thoughts
Thanks
Simon
I really need some advice.
I closed my long AUD and CAD, short USD positions before the US report came out. Because the report and today's movement would be good for USD. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
So do you see any profit taking evidence in the near term?? I am wondering that if need to short USD and long CAD and AUD again at this very high price.
I am sitting and watching it now, specially watch USD/CAD, hope it can hold above 1.0950 until tomorrow, maybe make the chart flat again. Then maybe it would be the reversal signal again.
Otherwise, USD/CAD will towards 1.05......I don't want to lose the chance.
Best regards
Qin
Some experts see that DOW will hit 12000 by september and S&P will hit 800s before hit 1000 .
Your commnet please .
Taha