GBPCHF is Done

by Ashraf Laidi

Jun 18, 2009 11:28

Today's +300-pip decline in GBPCHF is considered to be the beginning of a gradual downtrend towards the bottom of the 7-month rising channel. Weak data from UK retail sales and CBI as well as the SNBs signalling its satisfaction with recent franc-selling intervention has weighed heavily on the cross. GBCHF tests its 200-day MA of 1.7450. The cross is a very active pair during risk aversion swings and notorious for carry trade unwinding). Selling is especially expected on fresh selling in equities. Preliminary target stands at 1.7390, 1.7220 and 1.71. Rebound is seen capped at 1.766. EURCHF also seen testing below 1.5 towards 1.4930.

**** N.B. THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK INTERVENED SHORTLY AFTER THIS POST, PROPELLING GBPCHF BY 300 PTS BECAUSE CHF WAS STRENGTHENING EXCESSIVELY AFTER ITS STATEMENT****therefore resistance is being lifted to 1.7750s, but new downtrend seen intact.

UPDATED RESISTANCE at 1.7970, 50% of pullback from 2.49 to 1.5186

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