USDJPY 4-week Cycles

by Ashraf Laidi

Jun 24, 2009 14:06

USDJPYs 4-week cyclicals suggest renewed downside into month and quarter end amid medium-term USD weakness associated with Fed asset purchases and the defensive risk climate suggested by struggling equities. Note the last 3 major peaks and troughs in USDJPY occurred at 4-week intervals, which suggests that the next cycle low could take place by next week, calling up a a level near 92.50-93.00. While we could see modest gains in equities in the aftermath of todays FOMC statement, both equities and USDJPY suggest further downside ahead. USDJPY resistance capped at 95.90s, with interim downside target at 95.10, followed by 94.50. Current cyclical pattern suggests sub 94 and onto low 93s by mid next week.

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