USDJPY 4-week Cycles

by Ashraf Laidi
Jun 24, 2009 14:06 | 182 Comments

USDJPY 4-week Cycles - USDJPY June 23 (Chart 1)

USDJPYs 4-week cyclicals suggest renewed downside into month and quarter end amid medium-term USD weakness associated with Fed asset purchases and the defensive risk climate suggested by struggling equities. Note the last 3 major peaks and troughs in USDJPY occurred at 4-week intervals, which suggests that the next cycle low could take place by next week, calling up a a level near 92.50-93.00. While we could see modest gains in equities in the aftermath of todays FOMC statement, both equities and USDJPY suggest further downside ahead. USDJPY resistance capped at 95.90s, with interim downside target at 95.10, followed by 94.50. Current cyclical pattern suggests sub 94 and onto low 93s by mid next week.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 182) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 17:22
raj, thats not a bad idea as a medium term trade based on risk aversion. The spike appeared too aggressive. And right now, yen weakness is the least troublesome trade.

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
13 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 17:16
Ashraf,
just now I initiated my short in NZDJPY 6547.Do you think that it can turn out to be a good trade?
Regards,
Rajib.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 14:41
raj, makes sense. congrats on entering at a much higher point. I still se furtehr USD gains vs non JPY currencies.

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
13 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 14:18
Ashraf,
I initiated my short in USDJPY at 9650.and expecting a big move to come.Waht do you think Ashraf?
Regards,
Rajib.
Pipster
birmingham, UK
Posts: 111
13 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 14:00
Ashraf,

Where do we go from here with the USD/JPY - OUCH
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Aug 4, 2009 18:37
jj, raj, that 94.38 low in USDJPY reminds us that the trend remains wekk down and 95.80, 96.20 will continue to hold.

Ashraf
jj
New Jersey, United States
Posts: 22
13 years ago
Aug 3, 2009 20:46
when will yen also join in vs usd to send usdjpy back to 91 and then 88 levels?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Aug 3, 2009 18:42
raj et al, USDJPY fails to break above 95.80 (still far from 96.20)

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
13 years ago
Aug 3, 2009 11:05
Ashraf,
Last Friday was a real nightmare for me and my account :-( I loose near 12% of my account but I am unable to realize the reason behind the move in currencies and commodities. Ashraf, is there any chance that USDJPY touch 9620 level?And what is your view in US dollar Index?
Regards,
Rajib.
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
13 years ago
Aug 3, 2009 9:17
Currently long USDJPY to targets 95.30/40 (Jul 27/29 high) and 95.90 (Jul 30 high). Small targets currently.