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NZD's Overshoot vs GBP?

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 24, 2009 15:09 | 49 Comments

NZD's Overshoot vs GBP? - NZDGBP Aug 21 (Chart 1)

NZDGBP (using the NZDGBP exchange rate instead of the more conventionally expressed GBPNZD due to charting issues with the latter) has proven to be highly correlated with risk appetite, including equity market sentiment. Since NZD has always commanded higher interest rates than GBP, extended rallies in NZD vs GBP have commonly occurred during run-ups in appetite, while turnarounds were usuallyu related to retrenchment in risk-seeking trades. Technically, the pair has failed to post a weekly close above 0.41-45 in 3 occasions over the last four years. Today, NZDGBP hit an all time high of 0.4172 (2.39 low in GBPNZD), reflecting a combination of rallying equities and prolonged GBP weakness. While the general fundamental picture remains GBP-negative, we could see an improvement in GBP vs NZD as the RBNZ issues more vocal concerns regarding excessive NZD strength.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 49) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 6, 2009 1:33
steve, that short NZD vs GBP trade was totally destroyed by falling GBP. still dealing with a poor GBP.

Jack, NZD expected losses vs USD may be limited even during risk aversion, so start to look at higher levels here in long term i.e. 0.83 by early Q1.

Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
16 years ago
Oct 5, 2009 18:44
Hi Ashraf could I get your opinion on where you think we could see NZD Vs GBP & USD at end of q4 2009

thx
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
16 years ago
Sep 18, 2009 14:44
Hi Ashraf. Just to clarify that. SHORT (not Long) GBPNZD to 0.47 (EOY). Medium term movement UP for GBPNZY?

Steven
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Sep 18, 2009 14:35
gun, polluz, zero, rising NZDGBP is mainly the result of those Lloyds news. shorting GBP vs EUR remains my preferred trade, followed by USD, while long GBP vs NZD could hit 0.47 by year-end. still expect medieum term retreat though.

Ashraf
zerolife
damascus, Syria
Posts: 10
16 years ago
Sep 18, 2009 14:19
mr ashraf what is happenning now?
an odd matter
where to gbp/nzd will
go ?
pollux
France
Posts: 23
16 years ago
Sep 18, 2009 12:11
Hi Ashraf,
what is your view on gbp/jpy at this level 149.35?
thanks
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
16 years ago
Sep 18, 2009 11:57
Hi Ashraf - Do you still think NZD has overshot GBP? And could I kindly get your end of year prediction/expectation for this pair.

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Sep 10, 2009 5:33
zero, lets get through the post-BoE reaction in GBP first then we see. Best case scenario for GBP against NZD is for Bank of England does not announce negative rates on reserves and equity markets to start selling off.

Ashraf
zerolife
damascus, Syria
Posts: 10
16 years ago
Sep 9, 2009 19:56
i think this night this pair will be very intersting to work on
gbpnzd
glory
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 10
16 years ago
Sep 9, 2009 11:33
Any new update for Hot Chart?
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