ECB Scenarios

by Ashraf Laidi

Jul 26, 2018 11:51

The ECB decision is at 1145 GMT (12:45 London), but it's a foregone conclusion that interest rates won't change. Instead, focus on messaging and press conference 45 mins later.

Click To Enlarge

Click To Enlarge

Focus on any rewording of the calendar guidance. Draghi is in a tough spot as he tries to retain an upbeat stance on the economy and keep a rate hike at this time next year on the table without driving the euro excessively higher. In the past he has been a masterful messenger, but the tweaking and messaging has gotten so precise that he finds himself in a near-impossible spot with a high risk of sending the wrong signal. If he can navigate the choppy waters, the underlying bias may be toward euro strength in the day ahead if Juncker's deal isn't picked apart.

More Hot-Charts

• USDJPY and EURUSD

  Apr 22, 2026 11:57 | by Ashraf Laidi
  سأرسل رسالة صوتية و كتابية توضيحية لأعضاء مجموعة الواتساب الخاصة حول هذه المخططات - Will send detailed note on latest parameters to our WhatsApp Bdcst Group...

• US crude oil Update

  Apr 17, 2026 16:02 | by Ashraf Laidi
  سأرسل رسالة صوتية و كتابية توضيحية لأعضاء مجموعة الواتساب الخاصة حول هذه المخططات - Will send detailed note on latest parameters to our WhatsApp Bdcst Group...

• Patterns on Fridays & Mondays

  Mar 30, 2026 14:38 | by Ashraf Laidi
  Since the start of the war on Iran, the pattern of falling Fridays in US equity indices has become obvious. Will the pattern ends this week.