Ashraf Laidi Co-hosting CNBC Squawk Box - July 25, 2012
Jul 28, 2012 2:08
Ashraf talks about policy & FX implications of Draghi's remarks as well as the rumours of that the LTRO could unleash a 5-year LTRO. Ashraf gives his EURUSD outlook going into the US GDP report and addresses the ECB's shock-&-awe in delivering the next blow to sovereign bond yields. For tradable Premium Insights, click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/
A lot has happened since I posted this XME/XLE chart from 3 weeks ago (click on this link and scroll down). Gold is a little stronger vs oil with XME/XLE ratio at 0.59 and the RSI is now testing the trendline resistance. As a reminder, XME is a major ETF for metals & mining stocks, while XLE is the biggest ETF for energy firms. Why am I mentioning this now? Metals (specifically gold) could further be boosted by the necessity for nations (especially oil-importers) to preserve the value of their monetary reserves against oil. Regardless of whether these nations are from the industrialized or less developed world, they must preserve their purchasing power of oil. See whatGhana agreed with the UAE about paying for their oil with gold in my tweetearlier this week. OPEC will be closely watching the ouctome of next week's EU discussions of the G7 price cap on Russian oil exports. Any prolonged decline in oil prices will see OPEC rushing to cut supplies, which would affirm the importance of stocking up on those few monetary/nonmonetary reserves that maintain their value relative to oil. And that would be no other than gold. Watch the RSI on XME/XLE.