Ashraf Laidi on CNBC About Football & the Eurozone - June 22, 2012
Jun 25, 2012 3:26
Ashraf draws a few analogies between the Euro2012 Football match between Greece and Germany and their respective roles in the Eurozone.
Barely five years ago, it was unimaginable for Germany's "player of the moment" to be named "Mario Gomez", or have a prolific midfielder named "Mesut Ozil". Just as it has become more "accepted" for Germany's football team to have key players originating from Poland, Spain, Turkey and Tunisia, Chancellor Merkel's government may have no choice but to play by the rules of reality demonstrating flexibility in dealing with its Southern neighbors.
The Bundesbank's staunch opposition to bond purchases was overcome two years ago and will likely do so again this autumn with the inclusion of a third LTRO. Although the LTRO was solely useful for containing bond yields and alleviating banks' liquidity costs by dragging down EUROIS spread, it was beneficial in buying policymakers time. Just as the German central bank succumbed to those demands, it has grown tolerant of a temporary increase in inflation. Now Berlin may need to accept rendering the fiscal rules more flexible, by allowing an extension of fiscal targets for Spain and Greece.
Berlin is also being pressured by France and the IMF to further support recapitalizing banks directly without the involvement of the governments, as is currently proposed for Spain.
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On March 30th, I sent an IMT (see here) highlighting how we called the bottom in Nasdaq at 22780, with a video demonstration shown here . On Monday, we issued a bullish post on Nasdaq, calling for a rally extension to 24,440 at the meeting point of the 200-DMA. This is what we call 2000 points highlighted to out WhatsApp Bdcst Group members. We ignored the insults-ridden messages of Trump, we disregarded his threats to "destroy civilisation" and stayed Long Gold and Long Nasdaq until 4840 and 24,440. 4840, you may recall is a near make-or break level for Wave 4. So, You have two choices: Chase Trump and the news on every release, or stick to a set of fundamental and technical framework. Here is one message sent on Monday before going on holiday.
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