أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 03 أبريل 2013
Apr 3, 2013 15:33
Telling CNBC Arabia that yen traders await Thursday's BoJ decision, which will be scrutinized for whether governor Kuroda succeeds in producing a majority vote in favour of an increase in the amount of assets buys and extending the duration of bonds under the asset purchases program (APP to five years or longer, from the current three years.
There is also the contentious "bank note rule", which stipulates that total asset purchases by the central bank may not exceed total bank notes in circulation so as to avoid monetizing of the debt.
The worst from Cyprus is gone as long as there are no signs that haircuts on deposits spread to other Eurozone nations.
Both ADP and services ISM were a disappointment, which is leading to fresh yen strength vs USD.
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It does not matter the Bank of Japan will raise rates to a 30-year high. It also unlikely to cause a violent unwiding of the carry trade as was the case in August 2024? Why? First of all, Friday's 25-bp hike in the overnight rate to 0.75% is widely anticipated and will not be a surprise as in August 2024. Also remember, we had a rate hike in January, which was harmless in scale and in anticipation. Secondly, stock markets are well below their highs, meaning they're not at their peaks as was the case in August 2024, when they were vulnerable to any pricking from the Japanese needle. BoJ Governor Ueda, shall temper market fears, by indicating that the new 0.75% rate is well below the neutral rate, which is around 1.0%. This means 0.75% is not at all hawkish. If anything, it remains too low. Once Ueda asserts this point, while assuring no rush in future rate hikes --markets are likely to take it in stride. TIMINGS: BoJ announcements are usually between 3-4 am GMT, followed by the important press conference around 4.5 hrs later.
EURGBP & Bank of England
Today's weaker than expected UK CPI sharply boosted EURGBP and dragged down GBPUSD on improved expectations the BoE will cut rates tomorrow (Thursday).
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Uncertain December
The oscillating changes in market expectations for the December FOMC meeting implies more volatility into the next 4 weeks.
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