Gold selloff turns to a free fall on reports of margin calls hitting buyers at the Shanghai Gold Exchange. China's weaker than expected GDP figures coming in at 7.7% from 7.9% did not help metals either. Fears that nations other than Cyprus will resort to gold selling to bolster their finances are hurting the metal. Silver extends collapse to 23. Both gold and silver are seeing a Monday rebound, which many conclude to be bottom fishing by the central banks. To find out, which of the 2 metals faces more downside, take a look at our note on the Gold/Silver Ratio in the latest Premium note. New trades are issued on GOLD, SILVER and USDCAD with accompanying trading notes to lay out the rationale for these trades.http://ashraflaidi.com/premium
The upper panel of the chart shows net speculative longs in the futures contract of US Dollar Index (formerly Chicago Mercantile Exchange now Intercontinental Exchange). See how sentiment has improved from net shorts to 328 net longs contracts (longs exceed shorts by 328), to enter positive territory for the first time since June 2025. There are 2 occasions when positioning entered positive before territory before dropping back to negative, dragging the US dollar--August 2009 and November 2020. Will this time prove the same and lead to fresh selling in the US dollar? Tenporary gains in DXY mean DXY will remain capped near 98 (55DMA), while EURUSD supported around 1.1750/70 also near the 55 DMA.
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