أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 07 نوفمبر2013
Nov 8, 2013 4:09
The gap between the refinancing rate and the deposit rate has been reduced to 0.25%, the lowest level since the euro began trading in January 1999. Interestingly, the gap is three times as low as in 2009, when inflation was negative during the financial crisis, compared to the current 0.7%.
The above developments are likely to prevent EURUSD from breaking above the $1.37 even if Draghi did not mention euro strength, but it remains premature to expect a euro decline below $1.30 (which coincides with the 100-week moving average) considering the likelihood of downward GDP revisions in the US and prolonged asset purchases from the Fed.
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Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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