The continued strengthening of the US dollar despite worsening US jobs and manufacturing activity, and broadening evidence of a sluggish China results from market realization that the Fed's shortened and sterilized QE (Operation Twist) deployed until year-end will be inadequate in addressing the unavoidable deterioration in global activity. As long as the presence of Operation Twist prevents any new QE program, equities rebounds should remain contained, commodities to probe further downside (led by oil until grains turnaround) -- all alongside a rising USD. Throughout, gold and silver compete for which is the preferred dead-cat bounce.
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Is the US already in a recession? Will July's Fed rate hike be the final rate hike of 2022? Will the Fed follow up with one more rate hike in September, and more in Q4 or will it pause in Q4, before resuming in Q1 2023? Which of the below do you think is the most appropriate? Select your choice in the poll below, then iew the results.