Ashraf discusses the record highs in the Dow-30 relative to its US peers due to rallying banking stocks (JP Morgan $15 below its all time high) while technology stocks stay behind. Making the point that US employment dynamics are healthier than those in 2007 with respect to flow and trend, the case for 1600/10 in the S&P500 is solid.
Ashraf also discusses the damaged sterling following the latest manufacturing data, which show a deepening contraction in the sector. GBPUSD looks onto 1.46 as the Bank of England has yet to open a new round of asset purchases.
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The current decline in oil prices has accelerated the decline in USDJPY as Japan is one of the world's biggest oil importers. Some oil charts are showing a potential for a double top. Those who missed the move in USDPY, should tread carefully. The pair broke below the 55 and 100 DMA in a single day to register its biggest percentage decline since December 2022 of more than 2.5% . DXY is down 0.8%, its fastest daily percentage decline since March 19. Shorting USDJPY at this point is risky as it is resting on the trendline support from the April 2025 low. Do not short USDJPY below155.80/80.
For US crude oil, however, currently trading at 104.15, the the next trendline support stands at $102.00, withe the potential of seeing a $101.30 print.
Keep an eye on Brent oil, which is already resting on the trendline support (see chart) at $114.00. A close below $111.00, could become the driver of other energy prices and trigger a sub $100 in crude.
Latest Hot-Chart - Apr 22
USDJPY and EURUSD
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Understanding US Dollar 2018 2019
I created this chart in December 2024, pointing to the importance of understanding some of the fundamental events shaping USD Index between 2018 and 2019. Why 2018 and 2019.
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