أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 06 أغسطس 2013
Aug 6, 2013 16:43
. ??????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ???? ???? ?? ????? "???? ??? ???????" ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????. ???? ?? ????. ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???????? 2.0 %.
???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? 2.0% ??? ?? ???? ?? 4 ?????. ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? 2.2% ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??. ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ????? ???????.
????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? 2.0% ??????? ??????? ??? "???? ???????"? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ?? "???? ???? ??????".
The only bit of forward guidance from Carney's BoE has been the indication that current gilt yields were too high. That is not enough. Carney will have to introduce an additional policy objective besides the 2.0% inflation target.
UK annual inflation has been above 2.0% for nearly 4 years. Despite halving inflation to 2.2% last autumn, the BoE has yet to meet its mandated target. At next week's inflation report, we expect Carney to introduce growth-oriented targets, such as employment metrics or loans to the private sector, enabling the Monetary Policy Committee to stimulate hesitant growth without focusing attention on a single price target at the expense of sacrificing vital growth.
As long as Mr. Carney insists that inflation will recede back towards 2.0% and uses terms such as "escape velocity", bond traders can be assured that monetary policy is far from "maxed out".
You must be tired of reading analysis about 15 war scenarios and 7 different explanations of why gold fell with stocks despite surging geopolitical risks. But here is what really matters: Last Monday, minutes after gold hit the $4090 low, I sent the below messages to our WhatsApp Bdcst Group, clearly stating the following: 1. Gold has seen the bottom and will not fall below $4090. 2. Equity indices like the Nasdaq100 will not rebound with gold, but will continue to fall into the rest of the week until reaching a low on Friday or Sunday night. And so, just when everyone was used to the idea of gold dropping with stocks, I sent an alert to our members on Tuesday/Wednesday that the correlation will weaken, leading to gold rebounding and indices trailing behind ...until..this week. This is what really matters. The bottom image contains a message from a member thanking me for rescuing his account when he asked me whether to close his gold Long at a loss near $4370. As gold dropped to $4350, I told him to keep the Long position. He listened, held and later closed his long at $4520, making $1500 in profit. This is how we link analysis to trading and positioning.
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