أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 06 أغسطس 2013
Aug 6, 2013 16:43
. ??????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ???? ???? ?? ????? "???? ??? ???????" ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????. ???? ?? ????. ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???????? 2.0 %.
???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? 2.0% ??? ?? ???? ?? 4 ?????. ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? 2.2% ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??. ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ????? ???????.
????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? 2.0% ??????? ??????? ??? "???? ???????"? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ?? "???? ???? ??????".
The only bit of forward guidance from Carney's BoE has been the indication that current gilt yields were too high. That is not enough. Carney will have to introduce an additional policy objective besides the 2.0% inflation target.
UK annual inflation has been above 2.0% for nearly 4 years. Despite halving inflation to 2.2% last autumn, the BoE has yet to meet its mandated target. At next week's inflation report, we expect Carney to introduce growth-oriented targets, such as employment metrics or loans to the private sector, enabling the Monetary Policy Committee to stimulate hesitant growth without focusing attention on a single price target at the expense of sacrificing vital growth.
As long as Mr. Carney insists that inflation will recede back towards 2.0% and uses terms such as "escape velocity", bond traders can be assured that monetary policy is far from "maxed out".
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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