Ashraf reiterates his bearish case for GBP and bullish stance for EUR, discussed in his Premium Insights on January 16. He points out the UK's inability to boost growth via austerity and rising probability of renewed QE by the BoE.
Ashraf also talks about the firming support for gold and he confluence between key moving averages and 5--year trendline. Upside seen sufficient to produce 1730-50 before momentum reaches a new juncture.
From the Jan 16 Premium Insights on GBPUSD:
"The divergence between GBPUSD and EURUSD is reflected in our ongoing bullishness in EURGBP, which started back in October. Although the June trendine support remains intact, we anticipate a break of the support to extend towards the 100WMA (1.5960). This requires a decline under 1.60, which would be the first since late November. The negative convergence between the weekly and monthly charts highlights the medium term negative outlook for the pair. We will be targeting initial support at 1.5960, followed by 1.5910, which is just above the 55-WMA and 200-WMA of 1.5870 and 1.5840 respectively."
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Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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