Most particularly about today's action is the recurring divergence between a falling euro and rising equities (alongside risk currencies weighing on USD) before the Fitch downgrade triggered an-all round risk-off reversal. As we speak, markets are attempting to rebound into the green, leaving the euro behind, highlighting the possibility that further question marks in Spanish banks ability to recapitalize will not necessarily spill-over to non-Eurozone assets as far as contagion is concerned.
Combining the Spain bailout with expectations of a market-friendly outcome in Greek elections (New Democracy now leads over leftwing Syriza party) and signals for further QE in next week's FOMC allows for an extension of the recent rebound in equity indices. This is already favouring the risk currencies of GBP, NZD and AUD, with CAD.
last night's Premium Intermarket Insights titled "Maintaining Consolidation View, include" longs EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD and gold. No positions in US crude. Distinguishing between the short and medium long term in these trades remains key. Direct Access here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=645 Non subscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01
You must be tired of reading analysis about 15 war scenarios and 7 different explanations of why gold fell with stocks despite surging geopolitical risks. But here is what really matters: Last Monday, minutes after gold hit the $4090 low, I sent the below messages to our WhatsApp Bdcst Group, clearly stating the following: 1. Gold has seen the bottom and will not fall below $4090. 2. Equity indices like the Nasdaq100 will not rebound with gold, but will continue to fall into the rest of the week until reaching a low on Friday or Sunday night. And so, just when everyone was used to the idea of gold dropping with stocks, I sent an alert to our members on Tuesday/Wednesday that the correlation will weaken, leading to gold rebounding and indices trailing behind ...until..this week. This is what really matters. The bottom image contains a message from a member thanking me for rescuing his account when he asked me whether to close his gold Long at a loss near $4370. As gold dropped to $4350, I told him to keep the Long position. He listened, held and later closed his long at $4520, making $1500 in profit. This is how we link analysis to trading and positioning.
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