Most particularly about today's action is the recurring divergence between a falling euro and rising equities (alongside risk currencies weighing on USD) before the Fitch downgrade triggered an-all round risk-off reversal. As we speak, markets are attempting to rebound into the green, leaving the euro behind, highlighting the possibility that further question marks in Spanish banks ability to recapitalize will not necessarily spill-over to non-Eurozone assets as far as contagion is concerned.
Combining the Spain bailout with expectations of a market-friendly outcome in Greek elections (New Democracy now leads over leftwing Syriza party) and signals for further QE in next week's FOMC allows for an extension of the recent rebound in equity indices. This is already favouring the risk currencies of GBP, NZD and AUD, with CAD.
last night's Premium Intermarket Insights titled "Maintaining Consolidation View, include" longs EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD and gold. No positions in US crude. Distinguishing between the short and medium long term in these trades remains key. Direct Access here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=645 Non subscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01
Here is 90-second video on gold's movements during Trump's speech in Davos. The apparent deal struck with Europe over Greenland has helped stocks and weighed down on metals. Gold fell more than $100 after reaching the $4890 target first mentioned 4 weeks ago. I still own my nulcear and rare earths stocks, such as CCJ, OKLO, TMC and UAMY as well as the semiconductor derivative plays, but also diversified to non tech such as AIR, APG, BBIO and others. After having united Europeans over Greenland resulting from his threatsm, Trump is now shifting towards gradually dividing Europe by prompting nations to compete for positioning over rare earths. China will also likely revert to its aggressive policy and rare earths will likely benefitl. The Maths Reminder on XAUUSD is in this video.
EURGBP Channel Test
EURGBP is on the cusp of a channel breakout. One of the least well known secrets is how this pair correlates with major equity indices.
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Understanding US Dollar 2018 2019
I created this chart in December 2024, pointing to the importance of understanding some of the fundamental events shaping USD Index between 2018 and 2019. Why 2018 and 2019.
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