Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 20, 2009 15:05 | 54 Comments

The FOMC announcement of March 18, December 16 and September 16 each produced an interventionist surprise at the expense of the dollar. But unlike in the announcements of Sep 16 (AIG bailout) and Dec 16 (Fed's surprising zero interest rate announcement), Wednesday's announcement to buy long term treasuries and expand the purchase of MBS and Agency securities may continue to extend the dollar's retreat, beyond just a few days. My warning for a turn in the dollar emerged shortly after the dollar index failed to break above 89.62 (euro equivalent low at $1.2455), which was a trend line resistance prevailing since the February 2002 high (peak of USD bull market).

Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil - USD Euromar 19 (Chart 1)


So why is it different this time?

1. The Eastern/Central European story haunting the euro was clearly a negative theme for the currency, but such a story would only prove detrimental for the euro in the event of a bankruptcy/implosion of these banks. Absent those events, those fears were confined to grading watch from credit rating agencies, thereby, not justifying prolonged selling in the euro towards the October lows.

2. It is not enough to make the case for the dollar simply based on the premise that the Feds aggressiveness renders the US economy most likely to recover the soonest. The fact that US credit market strains and ongoing macroeconomic spill-over show no signs of abating, justifies that intensity of the US central bank measures as they reflect the critical situation of US markets/economy. Also, recall that part of the Feds liquidity measures have been aimed at shoring up liquidity for foreign central banks.

3. Technically, the ensuing positive correlation between the USD and global equities suggests an acceleration of the dollar sell-off as equities extend their recovery (albeit still deemed a bear market bounce). Indices would have to rally by more than 27%-28% from this months lows to 845-855 in the S&P500, 4,460-4,500 in the FTSE-100, 4,680-4,700 in the Dax-30 and 9,000-9,100 in the Nikkei-225.

These are some of the factors most likely to make yesterdays major Fed action different from the previous two by extending USD weakness (commodity strength) beyond just 2-3 days, and into mid end of April-Mid May. These conditions are especially facilitated by oils' break to 2-mth highs above the 100-day MA for the first time since August and a rally in resource metals (copper at 4-month highs).

What About Gold?

Golds uptrend was bolstered by its ability to hold above the bottom of the 4-month channel pf $880, its ability to limit periodic declines to no more than 10-11%, as well as holding above its 50-day MA. These technical criteria were first brought up on March 6th. Having passed all these tests, I re-iterate the near term target of $1,050.

Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil - Gold Mar 20 (Chart 2)

Comments (Showing latest 10 of 54) View All Comments
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
11 years ago
May 9, 2009 20:28
Yes the yield curve is shifting the the left for 2/3+ UK and US bonds which would imply higher expectations of future inflation. This could also start to temp capital flows into government bonds that could reverse recent gains in the equity markes.

I see the recent rally in gold as a good indicator to immediate term equity trends ie downards correction.

I think gold will certainly trend higher from where we stand and break $1000 this summer.



Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
May 8, 2009 16:08
Carlco, you aint seen nothing yet. with bond yields soaring, centralbanks are going to have to flood the market with heavier purchases of treasuries and guilts. but the real cost of these borrowings wont be felt on the currencies until commodities push further up.

Ashraf
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
11 years ago
May 7, 2009 10:38
hi ashraf, still reading/rereading your book, im finding the current market just about the best schooling for trading the fx gold exchanges as there could ever be. Is the market having the wool pulled over its eyes by the fed in the way of extra capital needed by banks? this flooding of treasuries by the usa and uk has to feed into the cable at some point, right? my mind is boggling over how this will unravel, Q. How might the interest payments on gov. borrowings effect/influence BOE base rate, ie are these huge debt obligations going to pressure inflation ?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
May 5, 2009 16:41
OK Christine will do. Still bullish gold for the long term. but 930 appears as a ST target as early as this week if stocks do come down. Today's chart shows a break above the Feb trend line. Support at 870 trend line.

Ashraf
christine
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
May 5, 2009 11:33
HI Ashrah this Christine fr spore my emailadd is ngenjun@yahoo.com.sg will u email to me the correlation of various cy to equities mkt. R u still hold you bullish view on gold and the time frame. Thks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Apr 30, 2009 22:12
Christine, just saw your post now ! please email me your email and ill email it to you.

Ashraf
change is the only constant
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Apr 30, 2009 21:28
Just an update: uso on march 20 was 30.76 and 28.63 on april. Gld was 93.59 on march 20 and 87.27 on april 31 and finally udn was 25.60 on march 20 and 25.47 on april 31.

All lower.
HD
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 4
11 years ago
Apr 7, 2009 14:12
hi ashraf, i remember seeing a slide on the corelation of the various currencies to the equity market during your preso in SG. Is is available ? tx!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Apr 6, 2009 12:24
Christine, please look at today's HotChart on gold. Thanks

Ashraf
ngcheemeng
singapore, Singapore
Posts: 1
11 years ago
Apr 6, 2009 11:24
Hi Ashraf this is Christine from Singapore again. I like to recommend everyone to read your book which is clearly written, offering many valuable insights that many of us will benefit. You said as long as gold holds $880 short term still bolsterred. Last few days gold under heavy selling and today 6 apr broke the 880, what is the near term support? although longer view is intact. Should one get out first nwait for better price. Thks