Retail Sales' Message from Main Street

by Ashraf Laidi
Oct 15, 2008 15:39 | 9 Comments

The attached chart shows the year on year change in retail sales of 1.03% was the first decline since October 2002. There has been only 3 annual declines since 1992 (September 2001 and October 2002). The sales report carries negative implications for September retail jobs, especially as retail payrolls have now been in the red for longer than in the 2001-2 last recession.

Retail Sales' Message from Main Street - Retailsalesoct08 (Chart 1)

Were seeing a repeat of autumn 2007 and summer 2008 when surging market volatility of summer 2007 and spring 2008 gave way to deepening economic deterioration as shaky equity market confidence impacted consumer demand, corporate earnings and planned capex. Separately, US Empire state manufacturing index fell to -24.6 in October from -7.4, the worst level on record. New orders tumble to -21 from 4.4. Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at noon on the economic outlook to further indicate macroeconomic weakness and open the door for rates to drop as low as 1.00% before year-end. US Empire state manufacturing index drops to -24.6 in October from -7.4, the worst level on record. New orders tumble to -21 from 4.4. Prices paid index drops to 32 from 45.

USDJPY to Revisit 100.45 Weak macroeconomic data diverts attention from governments banking sector to the real economy, thus dragging USDJPY towards 101 and onto 100.50s. The failure to breach 103 yen has been cemented, shifting focus towards the 98 figure. The USDJPY pair is also increasingly reflecting eroding confidence among Japanese investors, whose losses in their own equity indices are dealing a major blow to investment appetite abroad, hence, yen crosses. Technically, the 2-hour chart shows a trend line resistance at 101.55, calling for 101.05-38% retracement of bounce from Oct 9 low. Subsequent target stands at 50% retracement i.e.100.44.

Time for More Declines in Sterling The increasingly negative correlation between sterling and risk appetite allows for renewed losses towards $1.7450 and $1.7380 especially on the combination of eroding consumer demand and anticipated pessimist tone from Bernankes speech. We should start hearing the word recession being uttered more often by Federal Reserve officials, as we have already heard from Yellen and Lockhardt earlier.

Trend line resistance stands at $1.7450, backed by $1.7380. Upside capped at 1.7380.

Euro Eyes $1.35
Despite negative economic figures from the US, EURUSD will go unscathed as the impact of further deleveraging in capital markets is to drag higher yielding currencies against the dollar. With currency markets continuing to move to the tune of risk appetite, $1.3550 stands as the next interim support, followed by 1.3500.

Comments (Showing latest 9 of 9) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Oct 21, 2008 18:49
Thanks Francis. pls refer to the latest EUR analysis in the latest Intraday Thoughts. Also, it is better to add comments to the Comments Box in the latest article. Thks
A
francis
GuangZhou, China
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Oct 21, 2008 7:17
Ashraf

very Splendid analysis thank you, i was sell the EUR/USD last night the rate is 1.3480

i Supposit the rate will be Toward 1.3380 level Bounce.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Oct 17, 2008 6:52
Francis, If youre asking about the short-term impact of the US elections on FX markets i.e. the 12 hours before and after the election results, then this obviously depends on 1) how close will the race be in the next 3 weeks (more suspense = more volatility) and 2) whether there are other market-related developments prevailing in that week. Currently, Obama is the favorite to win according to the electorate votes. I prefer not to make oversimplified statements, but regardless of how close the race will be, an Obama victory coupled with broader gains for the Democrats in Congress, may be negative for stocks and negative for carry trades (due to taxation issues). The only problem with this analysis is that it implies a dollar rally (against all currencies except the yen), which may not be the true in the case of US elections as these prove to be a US-centric issue, ie predominantly dollar-negative. We all remember how the dollar sold off during the 2000 elections when Al Gore was wrongly proclaimed to be president and how the dollar rallied aggressively against the euro when the White House was revealed to have gone to the Republicans. Be careful.
francis
GuangZhou, China
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Oct 17, 2008 3:43
Ashraf,

Thanks for your reply, yes i'm very Approval your view, and oil was drop down 70USD

gold was drop down 800 yesterday Whether Provides the support for USD, i have one

more questions about American presidential election, what do you think this event Influence carry trade market?

Francis
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Oct 16, 2008 7:46
Hi Francis, before i answer the question on EURUSD, id like to draw attention to the fact that Oil has lost 50% of its July highs falling to $72 per barrel, while gold is at $838 per ounce, thus, further propping the gold/oil ratio to 11.6 from the 5.8 lows of this summer, which is consistent with my prediction for a "global recession" each time there is a notable bounce in the gold/oil ratio.

As for EURUSD, in 3 months time I expect it at about 1.29-1.30.
francis
GuangZhou, China
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Oct 16, 2008 5:02
hi Ashraf

What do you think EUR/USD after Three months, from 1.3500 to which level as well!?

looking for your comment

Thanks
Francis Liu
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Oct 16, 2008 1:04
Hi Steve, good to know about your gains in cableand gbpjpy. USDCAD has been outrageous just as CADJPY has been due to plummeting oil and negative currents from US. I see the peak in USDCAD occuring in December near 1.24.
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Oct 15, 2008 20:06
Ashraf,

Please comment on USD/CAD pair, is it going down from here 1.1877, to 1.1200 or lower? Thanks.
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Oct 15, 2008 18:53
Ashraf,

Thanks for your insight, I made a bundle on GPB/USD, GBP/JPY short. Owe you a BIG dinner or lunch. Shall see you some day to chat. Keep the good stuff coming.
Thanks again.

Steve Tan - Ex-CMC Customer!