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Posts by "ashraf laidi"

4578 Posts Total by "ashraf laidi":
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Ashraf Laidi
(London, United Kingdom)
147 Posts by Anonymous "ashraf laidi":
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
2 days ago
Nov 11, 2019 10:45
In Thread: Ahead of the ECB
In reply to davidmichaels's post
David,

Thks for your input. EURUSD did well to hold above the 1.1030 horiz base, now eyeing another stab at 1.1110.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
47 days ago
Sep 27, 2019 12:44
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
In reply to tradingwala's post
It depends on what kind of "slowdown". Will it be a trade-related slowdown hitting mostly manufacturing, or will it spill onto a full-fledged growth contraction, accompanied by spiking volatility and sharp declines in equities?

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
47 days ago
Sep 26, 2019 21:39
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
In reply to tradingwala's post
Most central banks in the developed world are truly independent. Central bank independence began in the mid 1990s with the RBNZ being the first to gain constitution independence. The Bank of England became officially independent in 1997-98.

CentBank independence is crucial because it is in the interest of the economy --only when applied correctly. Any govt interference for political means is like taking steroids before a race, which you may win, while ignoring the long term side-ffects.

Deeper slowdown near end of Q1 2020.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
47 days ago
Sep 26, 2019 18:06
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
In reply to tradingwala's post
Hi,

Im not sure if i understood correctly, but your post seems to imply that the Fed will do QE4 for political purposes? I dont think that is the case. I continue to expect that any decision by the Fed to trigger QE4 would be out of economic need (deepening yield curve inversions) rather than pressure from Trump.

So it would be for the Fed to worry about that would look, not for Trump

I do not see him being impeached. But if he does, it would be a major negative event for the market.No doubt.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
49 days ago
Sep 25, 2019 11:00
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
In reply to tradingwala's post
Hi Tradinwala,

I agree with your choice Q12020- Perhaps Fed will signal the start of QE4 at the March 2020 FOMC meeting.

With regards to your point about 2020 being a presidential year, this in fact could be a deterrent (obstacle) to the Fed doing QE because it would not want to be seen as delivering a politically-motivated policy decision.

It's interesting you say QE4 will drive LT borrowing costs. If you're referring to QE4 driving up 10-year yields, then I would assume that QE4 would have to be deemed so inflationary to the extent of boosting yields. The question is: At what point in time would yields rise after the start of QE4. We shall see.


Ashraf


Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
55 days ago
Sep 19, 2019 11:05
In Thread: Fed & USD
In reply to tradingwala's post
Hi Tradingwala,

Thanks for your comments. Let's see them first buying back bonds --perhaps around Q1 2020. The latest liquidity injections suggest that renewed balance sheet accumulation is highly likely. https://twitter.com/alaidi/status/1174260108886458370

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
57 days ago
Sep 17, 2019 12:07
In Thread: Fed & USD
In reply to Faisal's post
Thanks for your insights. Saudi should probably start thinking about the way it manages its USD peg.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
57 days ago
Sep 17, 2019 11:56
In Thread: Fed & USD
In reply to Faisal's post
Hi Faisal,

I strongly agree with your point about spiking oil prices hitting the US consumer and it is for THIS VERY reason that TRUMP will NOT make any armed strike against Iran (he will escalate the rhetoric and threats) but he knows too well that any actual military action will produce $80 or $90 oil, which will jeopardize the ONLY REMAINDER cylinder of the US economy i.e. the ONLY hope for his re-election.

This helps explains why Trump was entertaining a meeting with Rouhani. It also explains why Trump had a a not-so publicized falling out with OPEC and Saudi about oil prices several months ago.

As for the 9/11 of the energy world, I have a big problem with this analogy:


i) 9/11 was a total surprise, whereas blowing up Saudi oil facilities is NOT AT ALL a surprise given the several attacks over the past 2 years and the ongoing war in the region.

ii) 9/11 spectacularly was a disaster for the economy and human lives, whereas (Saudi oil facility can be addressed, replaced, substituted, relieved). Yes, it will be costly but probably more of a boom for the oil world than anything.

As for you claiming Fed did not respond right away to Sep 11, that is simply wrong: On Sep 11, Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and BOC each cut rates that day in addition to providing liquidity injections. Yes, the oil attacks disrupted nearly half of Saudi's oil, but do not confuse disruptions with erosion or, obliteration. It's not like half of Saudi oil is totally gone. They can dig it back up.

Ashraf



Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
57 days ago
Sep 17, 2019 11:09
In Thread: Fed & USD
In reply to tradingwala's post
Hi Tradingwala,

Thks for your contribution. Im afraid Ill have to disagree, Not only the oil spike could turn out to be temporary, but sub-target inflation has been a problem for the Fed for the last 12 months (core pce under 2% since Sep last year).

You could also look at the situation from the angle of "what would happen to the USD and yields if they do not cut?" The answer would be a very ugly trifecta of rallying USD and plunging equities. There is no way around it.

Arguments for keeping rates unchanged are decent labour markets and OK US consumer, but of all this can easily be endangered by a simple deterioration in the trade war (not easy from this point) and another quants crash like we saw 2 weeks ago.

Your argument may be correct in the sense that we get a bigger dissent than expected. i.e. as many as 3 or 4 FOMC members vote against a rate cut. That would also be highly negative for stocks.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
3 months ago
Jul 22, 2019 11:44
In Thread: Your Top Trade?
In reply to abdaaa's post
abdaa,

Your comments make sense. But what would you say to those who say the US economy remains the strongest,etcc?
Would you care to give any forecasts on gold? price/time?

Ashraf