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Posts by "daveo"
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Posts by Anonymous "daveo":
From the 1.3400 high the move down on 1hr chart looks to be in a wave 4 today consolidation with 5 down to come to complete the first wave 1 down. Maybe finish circa 1.3200 then ret back to circa 1.3300/15 before next plunge down. Above 1.3400 voids this count.
Btw, talk here of capped by 200 DMA should read 200 WMA methinks. Let's keep this thing accurate :-)
Your questions are beyond the scope of this forum. All I can say is that if your trading "system" can't make money trading just one instrument at say 0.1 lot (forex) then it can't make money trading multiple open positions at higher risk. Think about that. You have to develop your "system" for minimal cost to you (or your father). Losses should be regarded as business expenses and kept to a minimum.
I often think the trading profession is harder than being a brain surgeon. Similar length of learning curves but a brain surgeon can quantify expectations for consistent returns once he is qualified. A trader cannot rely on anything tangible. The large majority of novice traders give up in their 3rd or 4th year of training, if they survive their first year.
For educational services (RT rooms etc) I suggest you research the futures arena because the forex arena is full of charlatans. There are plenty of charlatans in the futures educational industry but there are also a few legit services out there who could help you.
You can't expect AL or any straight signal service provider to educate you for $100 per month. They charge for providing their signals, take em or leave em--no guarantees. You are in need of 1 on 1 mentoring with assistance in developing your own personal trading systems. These are the cruel facts !
I shan't interfere with your questions to AL but I think he sometimes issues hedging trades. With regard to COT data I despise it being 3 full days behind the curve--I never use it.
It takes a lot of time for traders to find what studies and methodologies suits them best. Its a long road to becoming fully independent but that should be your goal. There are many perfectly legitimate different ways of trading and you have to find what SUITS YOU.
Pull up your usdjpy daily chart:-
From the october 2011 low I see Wave 1 up to March 2012 high.
Wave 2 down to Sept 2012 low.
Wave 3 up to May 2013 high at 103.72.
Since that high we are seeing Wave 4 in progress.
My initial preferred count for Wave 4 was a symmetry target at c.91.60, or if extended at 88.90 or somewhere in between. For example 50% retracement of the wave 3 would fall at 90.42.
For reasons I will not expand upon I now have a preference for a Wave 4 triangle which is perfectly permissible within Elliott's rules.
Draw your triangle resistance line from the 103.72 high through the lower high at 101.52 made on the 8th July. Draw your triangle support line from the 93.78 low made on the 13th June through the 95.80 low made last week the 8th August. That low may be the wave 4 low and if price breaks through that then my first initial preferred count will become the high probability again.
I am thinking that price will continue up from here (current 98.10) to kiss the triangle resistance line and react down again to perhaps test the triangle support line. From there we will see wave 3 of wave 5 explode upwards to take out the 103.72 high. Wave 5 will likely extend up to c.108 to 110 to test the August 2008 high you will see on your weekly chart.
If Abenomics works for the fundamentals we shall be seeing 124's and 135's in our future. However Japan has ginormous downside risks so it's best to take one small step at a time in this game. Try to read the price patterns which repeat over and over again !
Hope this helps, gt, gl
I always advise traders who wish to follow a signal service to use it as a "learning" experience. Also keep leverage low, not greater than 2% of account exposure on all open positions at any given time. This means you may not have sufficient funds to take all trade signals and if you do not take all trade signals you are up against Murphy's Law for optimising annual results. i.e picking all the bummers and missing the great trades.
I will post seperately my thoughts on usdjpy after dins, wife calleth :-)