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Posts by "daveo"

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DaveO
(N.Cornwall, United Kingdom)
512 Posts by Anonymous "daveo":
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 14, 2013 22:10
In Thread: EUR
EU difficult to read at mo. I had hoped it would make the 1.3443 level few days ago for a wave E high--then down the proverbial drain to deep deep doo doo. Maybe 1.3400 is a truncated top. Maybe my count is up the swanny river.

From the 1.3400 high the move down on 1hr chart looks to be in a wave 4 today consolidation with 5 down to come to complete the first wave 1 down. Maybe finish circa 1.3200 then ret back to circa 1.3300/15 before next plunge down. Above 1.3400 voids this count.

Btw, talk here of capped by 200 DMA should read 200 WMA methinks. Let's keep this thing accurate :-)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 14, 2013 16:31
In reply to merlyn2013's post
Sounds like you have learnt the first lesson which is how easy it is to lose money. For me trading has always been a serious business. I spent my working life starting and growing small companies--employing people, working my ass off--nothing came easy--just plain hard work. Retired at age 50 to start trading--- I have never had a problem with risk control from the very start. I intuitively knew the learning curve would be long and gruelling.I traded small size in my early years of development and I "invested" in legitimate educational services plus a very sizeable library of trading books. I regarded the first 5 years as if I were studying at uni.

Your questions are beyond the scope of this forum. All I can say is that if your trading "system" can't make money trading just one instrument at say 0.1 lot (forex) then it can't make money trading multiple open positions at higher risk. Think about that. You have to develop your "system" for minimal cost to you (or your father). Losses should be regarded as business expenses and kept to a minimum.

I often think the trading profession is harder than being a brain surgeon. Similar length of learning curves but a brain surgeon can quantify expectations for consistent returns once he is qualified. A trader cannot rely on anything tangible. The large majority of novice traders give up in their 3rd or 4th year of training, if they survive their first year.

For educational services (RT rooms etc) I suggest you research the futures arena because the forex arena is full of charlatans. There are plenty of charlatans in the futures educational industry but there are also a few legit services out there who could help you.

You can't expect AL or any straight signal service provider to educate you for $100 per month. They charge for providing their signals, take em or leave em--no guarantees. You are in need of 1 on 1 mentoring with assistance in developing your own personal trading systems. These are the cruel facts !
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 14, 2013 11:32
In reply to merlyn2013's post
my trading motto has always been "Get the Job right first and the Money will follow". You can tell I was an engineer :-) The analysis is the challenge and highly enjoyable, actual trading is just mundane routine. I aim for 70% to 80% win/loss ratio but you can make money on say 50% ratio if your trade management is highly refined. Trade management is the key.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 14, 2013 11:12
In reply to merlyn2013's post
Mertyn, no I don't post elsewhere and I avoid making calls here. I try to stick with meaningful analysis when time permits and let traders form their own opinions & make their own decisions. My stuff is too complicated (and potentially subjective) for many traders. I have freebie mentored in the past small groups of 6 traders but at age 69 I have to cut back on screen time and commitments. I can only teach my methodologies with the aid of a real time trading platform providing audio and RT chart presentation. 2-way discussion is essential--typing everything is too slow. You might think about joining an RT trading room, typical monthly fees would be $300 recurring subscription.

I shan't interfere with your questions to AL but I think he sometimes issues hedging trades. With regard to COT data I despise it being 3 full days behind the curve--I never use it.

It takes a lot of time for traders to find what studies and methodologies suits them best. Its a long road to becoming fully independent but that should be your goal. There are many perfectly legitimate different ways of trading and you have to find what SUITS YOU.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 13, 2013 21:23
In reply to DaveO's post
For E/wavers Elliott's rule of alternation states that if wave 2 is a "simple" corrective (ABC) then Wave 4 shall be a complex corrective, one of many, the triangle included in this category. Wave 2 was a simple corrective (albeit truncated), so wave 4 should be a complex affair. Vice versa applies.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 13, 2013 21:00
In Thread: EUR
In reply to Sir Ignore's post
rofl, well that's great, you will soon be able to understand Monsieur Georges and become our interpreter :-)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 13, 2013 20:44
In reply to merlyn2013's post
OK, here we go, just for you--I normally keep my head down to avoid potential blame :-)

Pull up your usdjpy daily chart:-

From the october 2011 low I see Wave 1 up to March 2012 high.
Wave 2 down to Sept 2012 low.
Wave 3 up to May 2013 high at 103.72.
Since that high we are seeing Wave 4 in progress.

My initial preferred count for Wave 4 was a symmetry target at c.91.60, or if extended at 88.90 or somewhere in between. For example 50% retracement of the wave 3 would fall at 90.42.

For reasons I will not expand upon I now have a preference for a Wave 4 triangle which is perfectly permissible within Elliott's rules.

Draw your triangle resistance line from the 103.72 high through the lower high at 101.52 made on the 8th July. Draw your triangle support line from the 93.78 low made on the 13th June through the 95.80 low made last week the 8th August. That low may be the wave 4 low and if price breaks through that then my first initial preferred count will become the high probability again.

I am thinking that price will continue up from here (current 98.10) to kiss the triangle resistance line and react down again to perhaps test the triangle support line. From there we will see wave 3 of wave 5 explode upwards to take out the 103.72 high. Wave 5 will likely extend up to c.108 to 110 to test the August 2008 high you will see on your weekly chart.

If Abenomics works for the fundamentals we shall be seeing 124's and 135's in our future. However Japan has ginormous downside risks so it's best to take one small step at a time in this game. Try to read the price patterns which repeat over and over again !

Hope this helps, gt, gl
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 13, 2013 20:05
In Thread: EUR
In reply to Sir Ignore's post
yeah, but what about beach talent skipper? Are u the best lookin beach bummer for servicing frustrated female brits? Seems to stick on my hard drive, that one--lol
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 13, 2013 19:13
In reply to merlyn2013's post
Merlyn, yes that was much too harsh for Ashraf. It is very very difficult to run a consistently profitable signal service, however skilled the trader/vendor. Sooo many variables which are not easily managed once a trade entry is triggered. This was the context in which we were discussing a copier---to enable AL to make quick changes to open positions and awaiting positions without the cumbersome business of having to first alert subscribers. Price action often dictates we change our bias and/or trade parameters.

I always advise traders who wish to follow a signal service to use it as a "learning" experience. Also keep leverage low, not greater than 2% of account exposure on all open positions at any given time. This means you may not have sufficient funds to take all trade signals and if you do not take all trade signals you are up against Murphy's Law for optimising annual results. i.e picking all the bummers and missing the great trades.

I will post seperately my thoughts on usdjpy after dins, wife calleth :-)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Aug 12, 2013 18:33
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
I have no first hand experience of using a copier, or using a myfxbook for that matter. But I have read an awful lot of forum commentary on these subjects and VPS's. I was under the impression that users can indeed select whether to opt for ALL trades or be more selective, as well as setting their own risk parameters. From a vendor perspective there are many potential administrative advantages to offering a copier service, gl----