5 Near-Term Themes
You probably had your fill of "2020 themes", so why not another? The one spot to watch for a jolt to global growth in ... China. The US-China trade deal removes a major worry for Beijing, which may take action as soon as early next week to enact some stimulus ahead of a week of holidays starting on Jan 24. Officials strongly hinted that another RRR rate cut isn't coming, but they are expected to cut the loan prime rate soon and may take additional stimulus measures on the fiscal side. That would be powerful -- and if they do, I see bright days ahead for the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars.
Inflation watch
A pair of US inflation reports this week were on the low side of expectations but there is a clear trend higher in core measures and wage growth (to a lesser extent). The Fed has confined itself to the sidelines but there is life in inflation. Heading into next month, we roll over some tough comps and that sets a lower bar. I think there's a chance that at some point this year, inflation is a major theme in markets and that sparks talks about central bank hiking.
Housing
Central banks haven't been able to spark broad based inflation, but they've been remarkably successful at creating asset inflation. With all the rate cuts last year, an underrated risk is a surprise rise in house prices globally. We're already starting to see signs of tighter market in New Zealand which just posted a 12% rise in house prices. Thursday's home builder sentiment numbers in the US were a bit stronger as well.
Oil
US shale oil is not what it appears to be. Every budget that comes out points to less spending this year and the market is laser-focused on return of capital rather than production expansion. Natural gas is worthless in many parts of the US and is being burned off at unprecedented rates. On top of that, the risks for the US election are higher in energy than anywhere else. The market is overly comfortable around $60 but a fall below $50 would create a real reckoning in shale and that has a multitude of knock-on effects, particularly in junk bond.
Iran
A week ago we were on the brink of war and now the world has forgotten about Iran. Geopolitics are impossible to price in. You can't price in half-a-war. The thinking now is everyone got to flex their muscles, but a report on Friday said that 11 US soldiers were concussed in one of the blasts. That puts to bed the theory that Iran was knowingly dropping bombs that wouldn't hurt anyone (assuming the report was true). The chance of Iran or Iran-sponsored militias launching attacks remains high and the situation could quickly spin out of control from them.
US election
The election is the one risk that everyone can point to and it's undeniable. The world will change on Nov 3 but it's a binary risk and that's tough to price in. At some point there will be a pre-election de-risking but it's tough to say whether that comes in the autumn or sooner. The following remains valid...so far:
Trump is staying in the White House as long as a recession or a stock market crash are ruled out.
Forex Brokers' Share Price Performance
The latest on share price performance of major forex firms shows CMC Markets in the lead, up 34% since January 2019, followed by IG Markets' 20% and Swiss Quote at 9%.
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what's ur viewpoint on CHFJPY, is't sell or buy?
It's too important to me pls.
Thanks in advance..
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multi weeks and day support reach on usd/chf at psychological level
good buying opportunity at around actual level
mind that swiss was overhaeting during time of us QE with capital inflow reaching its paroxism agianst its main trading partners the EU and that why the SNB decided in january to devalue its currency against euro by 20 cents .
right now swiss eco is doing pretty well especally the industrial side ; order book are full.
so keep on going long this usd/chf and mind the differential rate between the us gvt bonds and the snb rate decision.
Thanks,
Rob
as I told you last week !
It's only the begining
It's a volatile one as you probably know...
Thanks
Mainly gbpchf usdchf and eurchf
Still liking $AUDCHf & $USDCHF
A