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Posts by "daveo"

8683 Posts Total by "daveo":
8171 Posts by member
DaveO
(N.Cornwall, United Kingdom)
512 Posts by Anonymous "daveo":
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 22, 2011 1:57
In Thread: EUR
OK, here goes, just to keep da skipper happy.

"Father, forgive me for I have sinned.

Today I looked at a younger woman with passion in my heart and in my **** She had such lovely ass, lovely tits and wow those legs. Lord why do you tempt me thus. I know it is a sin just having dirty thoughts. Forgive me Lord."

Priest: "thou hast been a wicked man. You will say 100 our fathers and 50 hail mary's" Go in peace my son and repent"

That ok skipper ?


footnote. I daresay things have changed a little since I was forced into an RC education but the above is a fair example back in the 50's. I have enormous respect for the benedictin monks who taught me and in particular Cardinal Basil Hume who taught me french. He became abbot 3 yrs after I finished and then later the Archbishop of Westminster. During his time in that post and up to his death he did more than any other churchman since to bring all the churches together in the uk and to try integrate the various immigrant cultures our country has welcomed in. He was not so much "religious" as an incredibly "holy" person. And great fun too, great company. "Religion" is not what counts was my take-away. I could never swallow what I saw as wonderful fairy tales but I do believe that most of the lessons of the bible still hold good today and provide a road map to living, just as we need a road map to trading :-) Here endeth the lesson.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 21, 2011 20:28
In Thread: EUR
Skipper, referring to your comment about crazy britz da most most crazy of all :-)

Few years back (3 or 4?) our annual BBC Dimbleby Lecture invited a speaker from the US. He was a renowned scientist whom I'm sure you will know. Cracked the human genome map. The guy held the audience of intelligentsia spellbound, they were shocked at some of the implications he predicted. Now, remember I am talking about an american here.

Following that lecture I did some research to verify some of the things the speaker was claiming. I then reported to John Mauldin some of the most interesting meat. John then obviously did his own research to verify what I was talking about and the next thing I knew he was making certain investments related to the information. We communicate across the pond a little from time to time.

A few months later I needed to download the recording of the lecture. Well wadya know, the BBC had severly edited the real juicy content which had inspired me into feeling that here at last was some hope for the planet we reside. Enormously contraversial stuff !

I shall not go into detail here and risk inviting preconcieved ill informed responses. People can do their own research if interested.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 19, 2011 11:36
yeah skipper, I think that summarises things nicely. 24hr twitter jobby definitely "anal" along with a few other things I can think of. Information overload is a trader's enemy. Needs to be compacted. Not necessary for actual trading which I assume this is what its all about. And now we are into risking breach of contract with the third extension of freebie premium service. Correct me if I am wrong Ashraf, just worrying about you man.

If you are going to run a signal service you need to give it a lot of thought. Take a look at how other signal services out there operate. My advice would be to revert back to providing your "general" bias and leave the nitty gritty to individual traders. You can always add later when you have the basics of a subscriber service site and your email properly organised. Your email is going to be more important than twitter going forward for a proper membership site. Signal services are fraught with problems. Your expertise is in fundamental analysis.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 18, 2011 10:39
Ashraf, I don't recognise "1308 or 1312". My high probability levels were 1318 or 1306.6 and SPX bounced off 1318.50 yesterday. Dow levels would be 12246 and 12330 but it was the SPX you originally sited for analysis. I monitor all 4 major US stock indices + NYSE, $TRAN + internals for trading perspective.

@Qingyu, not attacking Ashraf at all, simply mapping his original SPX call against my own work which is founded upon price action and market structure. MA's are not very meaningful to me. If anyone doesn't like that, well tough. Lagging indicators are great after the event.

All the levels I post on various symbols are target levels for taking some profit, (potential reaction and/or reversal levels). Those paying attention to any additional comments made will understand further implications of the pattern work. Take it or leave it :-)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 17, 2011 13:22
In Thread: EUR
If they can fix the tax issue that would change everything. But its so deeply ingrained I have my doubts. That problem is far far greater than the rest of euro zone. They need to default, its the only way out for them now in an impossible equation. The people haven't stopped spending yet, anticipating their own currency is nigh. Companies are preparing by buying essential equipment and supplies to take them forward the next few years.

As for UK privatisation of the railways, I agree that is the one exception to the rule. Transport infrastructure should remain in public ownership and very often will need subsidisation in the shorter term for the longer term benefit of the nation. Much of our infrastructure has been burdened by excessive immigration growth and being a member of the EU does not in any way help that specific problem we have. Bad enough having past commonwealth commitment pressures. We are a tiny island !

I think you have more confidence in the abilities of governments than do I :-)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 15, 2011 12:12
jacek, I didn't mean to insinuate SPX would go to 600 tomorrow, I was talking about value, reversion to the mean. But when did it ever hug the mean in recent years, that's a thing of the past, everything is "fixed" these days and we have to trade accordingly. The "fixes" will only continue for so long as the US congress can maintain credibility with the out of control debt position. I do believe that time is running out fast. Add to that various other time bombs waiting to explode across the globe.

All my work tells me that stocks, commodities and PM's have arrived back at long term highs but we are nowhere near confirmation yet. Have to remain open minded and ready for anything.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 15, 2011 0:02
Sarah, can you spell the word dynamic ?

Analysing gold, silver and crude is going through a "challenging" period at mo. When is it ever not challenging but you know what I mean. Little shy right now posting thoughts as we need to be very dynamic with our trading. Some of the moves are >$20 one hour candles !

I am watching the various correlations closely but volatility renders them a little whippy.

For gold the immediate parameters are long above 1516.5 or short below 1477.7. My bias is to the short side for a possible visit to potential target levels at 1455, 1438, 1422, 1416. No point in looking beyond that. Above 1516.5 would be test of the 1529.5 high expect a reaction and possible reaction also at 1532/33. Target levels at 1542/45, 1551 and 1563 before any test of the high at 1576. It could fail below the high at c.1563 or any of the lower targets. If it took the high out well that's a different matter and we can start making fresh projections.

Silver is crazy stuff with the wide range candles so potentially dangerous (I don't know your level of trading expertise). Silver most always broadly follows gold although on this occasion silver topped out before gold and the pattern is not matching gold. It may have made its low for the time being. My bias is neutral until I see what happens on monday.

Parameters are long above 39.48 or short below 32.30. Its low is already sat on the trend line support from August 2010. If it breaks that it is likely to move fast but there is a 78.6% level just below at 31.33.. Below that we have the 28th Jan low at 26.38 for 100% retracement of the last daily chart swing up :-) I would need more pattern first to be able to make upside projection levels.

Hope this helps.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 14, 2011 21:51
Hey it took me 20 mins to find Ashraf's SPX comments in the archives. Twas on the 5th May in the Premier section. Naturally I arrived there last :-(

He reckoned 2% to 3% retracement which he calculated as 1320 nominal target. Actually 1320 would be 3.65% from the 1370 high on the 3rd May whereas 2% is 1352 and 3% is 1329.

SPX made its first low on the 5th May at 1329. Then moved up to 1354 high on the 10th May and since come down to closing price of 1338 on 13th May.

As I said below the pattern suggests will make a low of 1318.07 to 1306.62 area being 100% sym and 127.2% sym ext respectively, the former being just a twitch below the 55DMA and the latter being a twitch below the 100DMA. Pattern as per daily chart and 60 min chart.

If true, the move lower will be violating EW rules for previous pattern up from the 1249 low on the 17th March which means I would be on alert for a very much lower move altogether. From this perspective the previous low made at 1329 needs to hold for Ashraf's short term bullish bias to hold good. Also the trend support line from the 17th march low is a now a little above the 1329 level.

About 600 area would be true value based upon US fundies imo :-) perhaps a lot lower if Congress fail to cap their debt very soon indeed.

DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 13, 2011 13:07
In Thread: USD
Ashraf, I have no issue with your choice of service provision and I have no doubt this will continue to evolve over the years. You cannot afford to listen to all and sundry or you will drown. You yourself are the best judge of what to provide for the start-up period. Best to start small, prove and refine, then grow by adding modules as you are able to cope with expansion.

I think Sarah makes very good points about chanelling everything into your site. I feel she is right also in saying it is pretty obvious you need a new web site engineer. My issue is the one of navigation. Speed of access to everything you provide in split seconds without having to run 3 or 4 explorer tabs. Streams which do not time out. Easy ref archives etc.

I can be managing anything up to 10 open positions on different timeframes and different symbols. I try to make a contr in your forum. I work an average 16hr day in the screens at age 66. I service emails to old time trading colleagues. I try to keep up with everything but my biggest problem is your site and method of communication.

You work incredibly long hrs, I don't know how you do it. It's the site and communication technical issues which are seriously jeopardising your business potential imo. I want to see you succeed with the biz, you are already well proven in every other respect !
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 13, 2011 2:30
In Thread: USD
"Some people told me they dont need MNI FX Bullets because they have news stream on their platform. These services only give you the headlines and do not give you analysis of every indicator, and what the banks are saying about key technical levels in FX, equities and bonds".


Ashraf I agree the mini bullets provide good quality analysis and alerts but with your IMT's, the new Premier articles, the need to follow you on twitter to catch timing of issues and the cumbersome website to try navigate there is a limit to how much "stuff" a TRADER can grapple with whilst TRADING.

I subscribe to a good forex squawk service which is dead easy to navigate, doesn't time out, provides all the eco news announcements far quicker than anything else I have experienced and much more besides. Both audio and text. It works very much better for me than the mini bullets and its cheaper although that is not an issue. If you can get all your stuff properly sorted for very quick reference, and I mean quick and easy, I would consider the mini bullets once again but I would not wish to discontinue my FX news service. Let's be realistic here, we have a ginormous mess on our hands that needs SORTING.