Posts by "dodger"

Gunjack ,what I have been saying all week ,its nothing to do with uk ecconomy its inflation of commodities internationally.Uk has to import not only for its self but also for "manufacturers" to re export,the metals etc, that it has to import.

Chinese new year coming up and everyone off on holiday in the PRC.Have"nt checked the bond auction calendar but if there is any trouble in "less well healed" of the euro countries don"t expect Beijing to answer the telephone.

Funny how history tends to repeat,Geoffrey Howe produced a budget in 1981 that was somewhat controversal because it focused on reducing the deficit and was against further stimulation of the ecconomy in what were seen as tough ecconomic times.A letter was sent to the Times signed by 364 economists from the world of accademia critical of his policies that many now believe are credited with rejuvenating the british ecconmoy and laid the foundations of a period of unprecedented prosperity.One of the 364 signatories was ...Mervyn King ..then I think at the time a professor at Birmingham university.My neck is still out,Mervyn King has been wrong before in similar circumstances and has a reputation for sometimes voting in the minority on the monetary policy commitee.Better ecconomic figures later in the year and chinas continued export of inflationary pressures will see him out voted again.In yesterdays figures,the increase in uk manufacturing was not bad,of course transport,construction,and retail were all down but it was hardly surprising given december weather.There was quite a lot of construction activity starting up in london before the snow,several large projects,that are now behind and racheting things up to make up for the delay during the bad weather.Personally looking for pound to establish good technical support and begin taking positions there in preparation for better GDP figures being released in the spring against a back drop of rising inflation.

December weather in UK was S****!Actually about average for south korea,sweden or canada but the british were"nt really prepared as is"nt often they have really consistent heavy snow.All figures for December will be pretty skewed by this and will come in below normal but are lightly to bounce back for the beginning of this year.........unless there are further heavy snow falls closing down roads airports and keeping people out of the shops.Those in UK unfortunately already know this (LOL),but those internationally may not realise the actual cause of some of the negative statistics coming out of uk for year end.

As always a clear and incisive analysis,a theme seems to be building that some of the traditional "majors"are all being in such equally ill health that the smart money is now moving for value to the smaller sovereign,commodity,or preferably both currencies.More precisely from those with massive debt obligations to those with a surplus or balanced books,personally this trend makes me quite nervous and makes me realise how much has changed since this new century began.